Xi-Trump Summit: Trade, Taiwan, and Russia Dominate Talks as Leaders Meet after Six Years

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are poised to convene on October 30, 2025, for their first in-person summit since the 2019 G20 in Osaka, amid persistent tensions that have reshaped global geopolitics. Hosted on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' Meeting, the discussions will revisit perennial flashpoints—trade imbalances, Taiwan's status, and now Russia's war in Ukraine—while navigating a landscape marked by economic decoupling, technological rivalries, and shifting alliances. Harvard Kennedy School professor Rana Mitter, a specialist in U.S.-Asia relations, notes that while the core agenda echoes 2019, the U.S.'s evolving stance on Taiwan represents the most significant pivot, potentially softening hawkish rhetoric under Trump's deal-orientated second term.

Trade remains the cornerstone, with Trump aiming to extract concessions on tariffs, intellectual property theft, and market access to address a $367 billion U.S. deficit in 2024. The 2018-2020 trade war imposed 25% duties on $370 billion in Chinese goods, yielding a fragile Phase One deal that Beijing partially met through agricultural purchases but faltered on broader reforms. Recent pre-summit talks in Kuala Lumpur, during Trump's ASEAN visit, sketched a framework pausing Trump's threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs and semiconductors while delaying Beijing's rare earth export curbs by a year—critical for U.S. defence and tech sectors reliant on 80% of global supplies from China.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hailed the progress, but analysts caution that Xi, grappling with 5.2% GDP growth amid a property crisis and youth unemployment at 17%, may leverage soybean buys and fentanyl curbs for leverage. Unlike 2019's optimistic Phase One blueprint, today's negotiations incorporate supply chain diversification, with U.S. firms like Apple shifting 30% of production to Vietnam and India, underscoring a "derisking" strategy over outright decoupling.

Taiwan, the most volatile issue, has intensified since 2019's relative calm, when Trump affirmed the "One China" policy while approving $18 billion in arms sales. Beijing's 2022 encirclement drills following Nancy Pelosi's Taipei visit and Xi's 2023 vow of "reunification by force if necessary" escalated cross-strait flights to 2,000 annually. Yet, Trump's return introduces nuance: pre-trip statements flagged Taiwan discussions, and Beijing reportedly seeks a U.S. pledge against independence, potentially in exchange for trade sweeteners. Hawkish voices like Secretary of State Marco Rubio have moderated, with Trump prioritising economic wins over confrontation, contrasting Biden's $8 billion 2024 aid package. Mitter highlights this as the "biggest variable", suggesting a pragmatic U.S. tilt that alarms Taipei but aligns with Trump's aversion to "endless wars".

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Emerging as a fresh imperative is Russia's Ukraine invasion, absent from 2019 talks but now intertwined with U.S.-China dynamics. Trump seeks Xi's mediation to coerce a ceasefire, leveraging Beijing's $100 billion annual trade with Moscow and dual-use exports that circumvent Western sanctions. Expanded U.S. penalties on Rosneft and Gazprom, announced October 27, aim to squeeze Russia's $180 billion oil revenue, pressuring Xi—who has deepened ties via the "no-limits" 2022 pact—to facilitate talks. Yet, China's neutrality masks support for Putin, including 70% of its grain imports from Russia, complicating Trump's ask.

As the summit unfolds in Gyeongju's historic halls, outcomes could recalibrate Indo-Pacific stability, with stakes from AI chip flows to QUAD alliances. For two leaders whose rapport once yielded dinners at Mar-a-Lago, this rendezvous tests whether personal chemistry can bridge a chasm widened by pandemics, proxy conflicts, and protectionism.

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