Will Prashant Kishor Take on Tejashwi Yadav in Raghopur?

As the Bihar assembly elections draw nearer, with voting scheduled in two phases on November 6 and 11, speculation intensifies around Jan Suraaj Party founder Prashant Kishor's electoral debut. The former poll strategist, who launched his outfit in 2022 after a statewide yatra, has hinted at contesting from either Kargahar—his birthplace in Rohtas district—or Raghopur in Vaishali, the stronghold of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav. In a recent interview, Kishor stated, "Deliberations are on in the party, and if a collective decision is taken that I too enter the fray, then... it has to be Kargahar or Raghopur." The party's first candidate list, expected on October 9, could clarify his plans, adding intrigue to a contest pitting the ruling NDA against the opposition Mahagathbandhan.

Kishor's flirtation with Raghopur positions him as a potential disruptor in one of Bihar's most symbolic seats, long synonymous with the Yadav family's dominance. The constituency, carved out in 1977, has been an RJD bastion for three decades, with Lalu Prasad Yadav securing victories in 1995 and 2000, followed by Rabri Devi in 2005. Tejashwi, the current Leader of the Opposition, triumphed in 2015 and 2020, amassing margins over 30,000 votes each time.

The sole interruption came in 2010, when JD(U)'s Satish Kumar Yadav defeated Rabri Devi amid the NDA's statewide sweep. A Kishor candidacy here would frame Jan Suraaj as a direct ideological foil to RJD's caste-based mobilisation, targeting youth disillusionment and governance critiques. Analysts suggest it could syphon anti-incumbency votes, though RJD's machinery would mount a fierce defence to protect its prestige.

Opting for Kargahar offers a less confrontational path. Created in 2008, the seat in the Sasaram Lok Sabha segment has seen fluid outcomes: JD(U) claimed it in 2010 and 2015, while Congress's Santosh Kumar Mishra won in 2020 with 45% vote share. With a significant Brahmin population—Kishor's community—and his ancestral ties to nearby Konar village, the constituency aligns with Jan Suraaj's focus on extremely backward classes (EBCs), women, and Muslims.

Party workers in Rohtas express enthusiasm, predicting a strong debut that could force rivals to forfeit deposits. Kishor, who credits his "karmabhoomi" (workplace) as all of Bihar, emphasised in March that a birthplace contest would honour personal roots, potentially consolidating local support in a winnable battle.

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Jan Suraaj's emergence challenges Bihar's entrenched bipolarity, where NDA (JD(U)-BJP) and Mahagathbandhan (RJD-Congress) have alternated power. Kishor's yatra, covering 3,000 km and drawing lakhs, positioned him as a Nitish Kumar alternative, promising prohibition repeal, education reforms, and anti-corruption drives. Surveys like a recent Lokniti-CSDS poll show Jan Suraaj at 8-10% statewide, enough to influence close races but dismissed by veterans as a "flop show". Critics liken him to Arvind Kejriwal, accusing his barbs at Bihar's "jungle raj" as desperate bids for relevance.

Yet, with 243 seats at stake and counting on November 14, Kishor's choice could redefine third-front dynamics, especially if he targets high-profile foes. As candidate announcements loom, Bihar watches whether the strategist will play safe or throw down the gauntlet.

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