Vote Vibe Exit Poll Predicts Narrow NDA Majority in Bihar With 125–145 Seats

The tenth exit poll for the Bihar Assembly elections, released by Vote Vibe on November 12, 2025, has forecasted a narrow victory for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), projecting the coalition to secure between 125 and 145 seats in the 243-member house, surpassing the majority threshold of 122 by a slim margin. This prediction aligns with nine other surveys conducted post the two-phase polling on November 6 and 11, which collectively indicate a comfortable win for the BJP-JD(U)-led bloc, though Vote Vibe's range represents the tightest margin among them. Bihar recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 66.91% since 1951, with women outnumbering men at the polls by nearly 9 percentage points, signalling robust participation in a contest dominated by caste dynamics, development promises, and anti-incumbency sentiments against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's long tenure.

The NDA, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) led by Chirag Paswan, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) under Jitan Ram Manjhi, and smaller allies like Rashtriya Lok Morcha, campaigned on themes of governance stability, infrastructure growth, and welfare schemes such as the PM Awas Yojana extensions. Key figures include BJP state president Dilip Jaiswal and JD(U)'s Lalan Singh, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi headlining rallies to bolster the alliance's appeal among upper castes and EBCs. In contrast, the opposition Mahagathbandhan—uniting Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, CPI(ML) Liberation, CPI, CPM, and Vikassheel Insaan Party—pitched job creation and social justice under leader Tejashwi Yadav, who positioned himself as the youth's champion amid unemployment concerns. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, contesting all seats in its debut, aimed to disrupt the bipolar fight but faces projections of minimal gains.

Aggregating data from polls like Matrize (147-167 seats for NDA), JVC (135-150), People's Insight (133-148), and News18 Mega (140-150), an NDTV Poll of Exit Polls estimates the NDA at 146 seats overall, with the Mahagathbandhan limited to 91—down from 110 in 2020—and Jan Suraaj at just 1. These figures suggest JD(U) could emerge as the single largest party with 60-70 seats, edging out BJP's 55-65, while RJD might hold 50-60 and Congress 15-20. Analysts attribute the NDA's edge to women's support for prohibition and education initiatives, though critics like Congress MP Tariq Anwar caution against over-reliance on exit polls, recalling inaccuracies in 2015 when they underestimated the then-Mahagathbandhan's sweep of 178 seats.

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As Bihar awaits results on November 14, the projections have sparked jubilation in NDA camps—with BJP workers preparing 501 kg of laddoos in anticipation—and skepticism from the opposition, where Yadav dismissed them as "manipulated" by media biases. The elections, marked by over 7.5 crore enrolled voters post a rigorous electoral roll revision, underscore Bihar's evolving political landscape, where third fronts like Jan Suraaj failed to dent the traditional duopoly despite Kishor's bold claims of 10-150 seats. Should the forecasts hold, Nitish Kumar would extend his record as the state's longest-serving leader, but a narrower margin could test alliance cohesion amid ongoing debates on federalism and regional equity.

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