Trump Urged Iranians to Rise Up, But Intelligence Says Odds are Grim

Senior United States officials remain doubtful that the recent killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will trigger a near-term regime change in Tehran, according to multiple sources familiar with intelligence assessments. Despite the high-profile military strikes by the United States and Israel, officials believe the Islamic Republic’s political and security structure remains resilient. The scepticism reflects concerns that Iran’s opposition lacks the organisational strength and institutional backing needed to dislodge the long-standing theocratic system.

Before and after the strikes, US leaders — including President Donald Trump — had publicly suggested that weakening Iran’s ruling establishment was among Washington’s broader strategic objectives. Trump urged Iranian citizens seeking political change to “seize this moment", but intelligence officials privately caution that such outcomes are far from guaranteed. Sources said the gap between political messaging and intelligence assessments remains significant.

According to three officials familiar with classified briefings, U.S. intelligence agencies see little immediate evidence that Iran’s fragmented opposition can topple the regime that has been in power since 1979. While none of the officials fully ruled out the possibility of future instability, they described a rapid collapse of the government as unlikely. The Iranian leadership has suffered personnel losses from recent strikes and faces domestic discontent, but the state’s core power structures remain intact.

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Pre-strike assessments by the Central Intelligence Agency reportedly concluded that if Khamenei were removed, he would likely be replaced by other hardline figures, potentially from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or conservative clerical ranks. Officials noted that the IRGC’s extensive patronage networks and internal loyalty mechanisms make voluntary defections improbable, a factor widely seen as critical to any successful uprising.

Intelligence reporting also pointed to the absence of meaningful IRGC defections during the large anti-government protests in January, which were met with a harsh security response. Analysts believe such defections would be a prerequisite for any credible revolutionary movement. Meanwhile, Trump indicated on Sunday that Washington plans to reopen communications with Tehran, a signal that U.S. policymakers do not expect an immediate collapse of Iran’s governing system.

Within the U.S. government, debate continues over the broader strategic impact of Khamenei’s death, including whether it could alter Iran’s posture in nuclear negotiations or missile development. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has announced that a temporary leadership council has assumed the Supreme Leader’s duties, while senior Iranian officials have warned against internal unrest. Analysts say the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the strikes produce lasting political change or merely reinforce the existing power structure.

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