NDA to Win All 10 Bihar Rajya Sabha Seats as RJD Falls Short of Numbers

The National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) landslide victory in the Bihar Assembly elections, securing 202 seats in the 243-member House, positions the ruling coalition to claim all 10 Rajya Sabha seats from the state during the remaining term of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government, bolstering its Upper House majority. Of these seats, three are currently held by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), allowing the NDA to net a gain of three, increasing its tally from 133 in the 245-member Rajya Sabha to 136. The NDA's dominance, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning 89 seats, Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) 85, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 19, and smaller allies the rest, far outstrips the Mahagathbandhan's 35 seats, led by RJD's 20. This arithmetic ensures uncontested wins in upcoming biennial polls, reflecting Bihar's pivotal role in shaping national legislative dynamics.

Five seats will fall vacant next year upon the retirement of RJD's Prem Chand Gupta and A. D. Singh, JD(U)'s Deputy Chairman Harivansh and Ram Nath Thakur, and Rashtriya Lok Morcha's Upendra Kushwaha. Under the Rajya Sabha election formula, a party needs support from at least 42 MLAs to secure one of the five seats. With 202 MLAs, the NDA commands over 80% of first-preference votes, guaranteeing four seats outright, while the opposition's fragmented 41 MLAs lack the threshold for even one. The fifth seat will go to the NDA via second-preference votes, as per the proportional representation system where voters rank candidates. This mechanism, designed to reflect assembly strength, amplifies the NDA's sweep into an Upper House windfall.

The remaining five seats, up for election in 2028, include RJD's Fayaz Ahmed, BJP's Satish Chandra Dubey and Manan Kumar Mishra, and JD(U)'s Kheeru Mahto and Shambhu Sharan Patel. By then, the NDA's fresh mandate will still hold sway, as assembly terms align with these polls, potentially erasing RJD's representation entirely from Bihar if opposition fragmentation persists—exacerbated by All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen's (AIMIM) five seats and Jan Suraaj Party's zero, which split anti-NDA votes without aiding the Mahagathbandhan. Analysts project the RJD could be left with zero Rajya Sabha seats from Bihar by 2030, underscoring the long-tail impact of assembly outcomes on federal balance.

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This Rajya Sabha consolidation arrives at a critical juncture for the NDA, which commands 133 seats overall but faces a slimmer margin in passing contentious bills amid opposition resurgence post-2024 Lok Sabha losses. Bihar's 16 Rajya Sabha seats—10 up for renewal by 2029—offer a strategic buffer, enabling smoother navigation of reforms in areas like labour codes and farm laws. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JD(U), pivotal in the NDA's Bihar arithmetic, stands to gain two seats in 2026, reinforcing Kumar's national leverage despite health concerns at age 74. The victory, fuelled by women's turnout (outnumbering men at 67.13% overall) and welfare schemes like the MY (Mahila-Yuva) formula, also silences pre-poll speculation of anti-incumbency.

For the opposition, the rout compounds woes, with Congress winning just six seats and RJD's vote share dipping to 23% from 22.6% in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, per Election Commission data. Rahul Gandhi's Voter Adhikar Yatra, aimed at exposing alleged voter list irregularities, failed to stem the tide, leaving the INDIA bloc vulnerable in the Upper House. As NDA leaders like Amit Shah hail the mandate as a rejection of "jungle raj", the focus shifts to swift government formation and policy continuity, with Kumar poised for a record 10th term. This seismic shift not only cements NDA hegemony in the Hindi heartland but also recalibrates Parliament's power equation for the Modi era's twilight years.

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