Government Needs 360 Lok Sabha Votes For Key Constitutional Amendments

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is preparing for a crucial political test in the upcoming Monsoon Session of Parliament as it seeks the numbers required to pass two proposed constitutional amendment bills. Among the key proposals expected to dominate the session are the Constitution (130th Amendment) Bill, which proposes the removal of a Prime Minister, Chief Minister or Minister if they remain jailed for 30 days, and the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, which links the implementation of the 33 per cent Women's Reservation to the delimitation process. As constitutional amendments, both measures require a special two-thirds majority in both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha.

The renewed push comes after the government failed to secure the required majority during the April session of Parliament. During the voting on the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, 528 Members of Parliament participated, with 298 voting in favour and 230 against. However, the proposal required 352 affirmative votes to satisfy the constitutional requirement of a two-thirds majority of members present and voting. The shortfall has prompted the NDA to reassess its parliamentary strategy ahead of the Monsoon Session, with efforts focused on securing additional support from regional parties and independent lawmakers.

Political developments in recent weeks have altered the parliamentary landscape and are expected to influence the government's calculations. A group of 20 rebel Trinamool Congress MPs has reportedly written to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla expressing its intention to merge into a new political formation and join the BJP-led NDA. At the same time, tensions between the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the Congress over political developments in Tamil Nadu have fuelled speculation that the DMK could distance itself from the INDIA bloc during key votes, although no formal decision has been announced.

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In the Lok Sabha, which currently has a strength of 540 members, the NDA is estimated to have 292 MPs. A two-thirds majority would require 360 votes if all members participate in the voting. Even if the government receives support from the Trinamool Congress rebels, rebel Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs, the DMK and members of the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar faction), it would still remain short of the required majority. Floor managers are therefore expected to reach out to smaller parties and independent MPs in an effort to bridge the remaining gap. Another possible scenario involves opposition members abstaining or walking out, which would reduce the number of members present and voting and lower the threshold required for passage.

The Rajya Sabha presents a similarly challenging arithmetic for the government. The Upper House currently has 242 members, with the special majority requirement standing at 162 votes. The NDA is estimated to hold around 150 seats and would require additional backing from opposition or neutral parties to secure the numbers. Even if upcoming by-elections increase the NDA's tally, the threshold would also rise if the House returns to its full sanctioned strength, meaning the alliance would still need support from other parties or benefit from strategic abstentions during voting.

With the Monsoon Session expected to begin in the third week of July, parliamentary managers from both the ruling alliance and the opposition are likely to intensify negotiations. Every vote, abstention and political realignment could significantly influence the outcome of the proposed constitutional amendments. The session is also expected to witness discussions on broader electoral reforms, including the ongoing examination of the 'One Nation, One Election' proposal by parliamentary committees, making it one of the most closely watched parliamentary sessions in recent years.

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