Data Shows Mahayuti Ahead in 133 Wards, MVA Strong in Island City for BMC Polls
BMC 2026 poll data shows a close fight as Mahayuti leads suburbs and MNS may swing key wards.
As Mumbai prepares for its first Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections in over eight years, slated for January 2026, ward-wise analysis of the November 2024 assembly polls reveals a fiercely contested landscape where narrow victory gaps and the influence of smaller parties could determine control of Asia's richest civic body. Data collated and analysed by The Indian Express shows the ruling Mahayuti alliance—comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar's NCP—leading in 133 of the city's 227 wards, while the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), led by Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT), holds sway in 94. The remaining wards are split among independents and minor players, underscoring a fragmented electorate in the financial capital's diverse urban mosaic.
The BMC, governing a population of over 12 million with an annual budget exceeding ₹60,000 crore, has been under state-appointed administrator Iqbal Singh Chahal since March 2022, following the Supreme Court's intervention on OBC quota issues and ward delimitation disputes. Delays stemmed from the MVA government's 2021 decision to increase wards from 227 to 236 based on projected population growth, a move reversed by the Shinde-Fadnavis administration in 2023 using 2011 census figures to revert to 227 wards—a change upheld by the apex court in August 2025.
Minor boundary adjustments affecting about 60 wards were finalised in June, setting the stage for polls mandated by January 31, 2026. For Mahayuti, fresh off a landslide 230-seat victory in the 2024 assembly elections, capturing the BMC would consolidate urban dominance; for MVA, which secured 30 of 48 Lok Sabha seats earlier but faltered in state polls, retaining Mumbai's traditional Shiv Sena bastions is existential.
Geographically, the contest mirrors Mumbai's socio-economic divides: MVA dominates the densely packed island city and central areas like Colaba, Worli, and Byculla, where Marathi and working-class voters remain loyal to Thackeray's legacy of regional pride and welfare schemes. In contrast, Mahayuti leads in the sprawling suburbs—eastern hubs like Mulund and eastern Chembur, and western expanses from Bandra to Borivali—bolstered by BJP's appeal among affluent Gujarati and North Indian communities, alongside Shinde's Shiv Sena's aggressive outreach in slum redevelopment projects. Examples abound of precarious leads: Mahayuti clinched Dindoshi by a mere two votes, Bhandup West by 71, and Mahim by 44 for MVA, highlighting how micro-shifts in turnout or candidate selection could cascade across dozens of wards. Political analysts emphasise booth-level mobilisation as pivotal, given the 2017 BMC polls, where Shiv Sena edged BJP 84-82 despite an alliance.
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The wildcard remains Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), which garnered nearly 4% vote share (3.9 lakh votes) in the 2024 assembly elections across Mumbai's 36 seats, outpolling the winning margin in 67 wards—39 where MVA led and 28 under Mahayuti. In strongholds like Dadar, Ghatkopar, and Malad, MNS captured 30-50% of MVA's tally, often tipping balances; for instance, in Jogeshwari East (Ward 57), MNS's 918 votes exceeded Mahayuti's 482-vote margin, and in Bandra East (Ward 92), its 1,004 votes dwarfed a 623-vote gap.
With MNS eyeing revival, speculation swirls around a potential Sena (UBT)-MNS pact—possibly 50-50 seat-sharing in Marathi heartlands and 60-40 elsewhere—formalised around Diwali to consolidate anti-BJP votes and flip up to 90 wards. MNS's reluctance to fully join MVA due to Congress ties adds intrigue, while Mahayuti's unified front, announced by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, aims to neutralise such realignments. As alliances crystallise, the BMC race—burdened by three years of unrepresentative governance amid pothole scandals and flooding woes—will test whether margins truly forge mayoral destinies in India's commercial heartbeat.
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