Congress Supporters Face Uncertainty as PM Modi Predicts Another Split

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, addressing jubilant Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) workers at the party headquarters in the national capital on November 14, 2025, predicted an impending split within the Congress party amid the National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) resounding victory in the Bihar Assembly elections. Modi lambasted the Congress for its alleged negative politics, accusing it of criticising the Election Commission, spreading baseless claims of "vote chori" (vote theft), and dividing the nation along religious and caste lines. He described the Grand Old Party as having transformed into a "Muslim League Maoist Congress", claiming its agenda now revolves around such divisive ideologies, which he said has sown deep discontent within its ranks and could lead to a major internal schism. The Prime Minister's remarks came hours after early trends showed the NDA surging ahead in over 200 of Bihar's 243 seats, marking a landslide that underscores Modi's enduring appeal in the eastern state.

Modi's address highlighted the NDA's dominance, with the BJP poised to become the single-largest party, achieving a near-95 per cent strike rate by leading in approximately 120 seats. Its ally, the Janata Dal (United) (JDU), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, trailed closely with leads in around 80 seats, defying anti-incumbency sentiments and concerns over Kumar's health at age 74. The opposition Mahagathbandhan, comprising Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, faced a rout, with RJD managing leads in only about 25 constituencies—its worst showing in recent polls—and Congress slipping to around five seats from 19 in 2020. The Congress's vote share plummeted from 9.48 per cent to roughly 8 per cent, exacerbated by internal discord and a poorly coordinated seat-sharing pact that resulted in friendly contests in several areas, further fragmenting the alliance's vote bank.

The Congress's underwhelming campaign further compounded its woes, starting with high energy from Rahul Gandhi's Voter Adhikar Yatra but quickly losing momentum as the BJP's robust election machinery took over. Gandhi's limited joint appearances with RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav failed to galvanise support, leaving the alliance visibly strained and the RJD expressing frustration over the Congress's perceived absence in the crucial final phase. Both parties had defended their unilateral candidate announcements as responses to ground realities, but the outcome painted a picture of strategic missteps that handed the NDA an unassailable lead. This poor performance echoes the Congress's sub-par 2020 results, which had already strained ties with RJD and cast doubts on the alliance's viability ahead of the 2025 polls.

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As celebrations erupted among NDA supporters, Modi's prediction of a Congress split served as both a political jab and a rallying cry, warning the party's allies of being "drowned" in its alleged toxicity. The Bihar verdict not only reaffirms the NDA's stronghold in a state pivotal to national politics but also signals broader challenges for the opposition INDIA bloc, which had hoped for a resurgence post-2024 Lok Sabha setbacks. With the NDA's sweep, expectations now turn to swift government formation and policy continuity under Kumar's leadership, while the Congress faces introspection amid whispers of leadership transitions and potential defections. Analysts view Modi's comments as a calculated move to exploit opposition fissures, potentially reshaping the political landscape ahead of future national contests.

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