BJP Leads With Over 190 Seats In Bengal, Outperforms Exit Poll Projections
BJP beats exit polls with big Bengal majority
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) delivered a performance well beyond most exit poll projections in the West Bengal Assembly elections, surging to a commanding lead that pointed towards a two-thirds majority. According to Election Commission trends around 2:30 pm, the BJP was leading in 192 seats, while All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Mamata Banerjee, was ahead in 95 seats. Other parties, including the Congress, CPI(M), and AISF, were leading in one seat each.
The results marked a significant political shift in a state where the BJP has historically struggled to establish dominance. Most exit polls released after April 29 had predicted a close contest, generally giving the BJP a narrow edge over the TMC. However, the scale of the BJP’s lead exceeded expectations, indicating stronger-than-anticipated voter support across regions.
Among the pollsters, Today's Chanakya stood out for closely predicting the outcome, projecting around 192 seats for the BJP and approximately 100 for the TMC. Other agencies, including Matrize, P-Marq, Poll Diary, and JVC, had forecast BJP victories but with significantly lower seat ranges. Meanwhile, some pollsters such as Peoples Pulse and Janmat Polls had predicted a win for the TMC, reflecting the uncertainty leading up to the results.
Also Read: Mamata Banerjee Alleges Irregularities Near EVM Strongrooms Ahead of West Bengal Counting
Analysts suggest that pollsters may have adopted conservative estimates due to the experience of the 2021 elections, when projections widely favoured the BJP but the TMC secured a decisive victory. This historical miscalculation may have influenced forecasting models in 2026, leading to underestimation of the BJP’s actual performance in the state.
Reacting to the trends, Mamata Banerjee urged party workers to remain vigilant at counting centres and not lose confidence. She alleged irregularities in the counting process in certain constituencies and expressed hope that the outcome could shift later in the day. Her remarks underscored the high-stakes nature of the contest as counting continued.
The election once again highlighted West Bengal’s reputation for unpredictable outcomes and intense political competition. With the BJP appearing poised for a historic breakthrough, the results could mark a turning point in the state’s political landscape, potentially ending the TMC’s dominance and reshaping regional power dynamics.
Also Read: BJP Surges Ahead of TMC in West Bengal Early Trends; Results Still Fluid
