BJP-Akali Dal Alliance Talks Continue, Three Key Questions Remain: Sources

Alliance talks between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) are reportedly still underway ahead of the Punjab Assembly election. Although the BJP has publicly maintained that it could contest all 117 seats, discussions between the former allies have not completely ended. Sources indicate that one round of seat-sharing talks has already taken place, with three major issues still requiring agreement.

The first issue is the number of seats each party will contest. The BJP is seeking a substantially larger share than it received in previous Assembly elections, citing its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The party contested independently and received more than 18.5% of Punjab's vote, while leading in 23 Assembly segments, finishing second in six and third in 16. The SAD, meanwhile, secured about 13.4% of the vote and led in nine Assembly segments.

Taken together, the BJP and SAD secured around 32% of the vote in the 2024 Lok Sabha election and were ahead in 64 Assembly segments when the results were assessed constituency-wise. The BJP's internal assessment is that an alliance between the two parties could have led in 57 Assembly segments, only two short of the majority mark in the 117-member House. The calculation has strengthened the BJP's argument for a larger role in any renewed alliance and could make the partnership a significant challenge to the ruling Aam Aadmi Party.

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The second challenge concerns the distribution of individual constituencies. Historically, the BJP has had a stronger presence in Hindu-dominated urban areas, while the SAD has traditionally contested more rural constituencies with larger Sikh populations. The Akali Dal is now interested in contesting some semi-urban seats where the BJP has a strong organisational presence. At the same time, the BJP has elevated Jat Sikhs to important positions in its Punjab unit, signalling a possible effort to expand its presence beyond its traditional urban base.

The third major question is who would lead the alliance if the two parties reach an agreement. The SAD wants its president Sukhbir Singh Badal to be projected as the chief ministerial face, but sections of the BJP are reportedly not keen on making a commitment to a declared candidate. If an alliance is eventually formed and wins the election, the chief minister's post could go to the SAD because it is expected to contest more seats, while the BJP could seek the deputy chief minister's position.

The BJP and SAD were allies for decades before their relationship ended following disagreements over the farm laws. Their earlier partnership produced victories in the 1997, 2007 and 2012 Assembly elections, including consecutive terms for the alliance in 2007 and 2012. For now, both parties appear to be preparing independently while keeping the possibility of a renewed alliance open, with the BJP strengthening its booth network across all 117 constituencies and planning a statewide campaign focused on drug abuse and the central government's achievements.

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