#BiharPolls: Promises Galore, Voter Skepticism Ahead of Bihar Assembly Elections

The Bihar Assembly elections, scheduled for November 6 and 11 with results on November 14, have been overshadowed by a contentious Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls launched in June by the Election Commission, which initially deleted over 6.5 million names and added potentially fake entries, sparking widespread concerns. Supreme Court intervention allowing Aadhaar as proof of identity reduced exclusions to a few lakhs, restoring faith in the process for many.

Two dominant alliances dominate the fray: the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) or JDU with allies including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) or LJP(R), Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM); and the INDIA bloc, comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Indian National Congress (INC), Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) or CPI-ML, CPI, CPI-M, and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP). Independent players like the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) of Prashant Kishor, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), Azad Samaj Party (ASP), and All Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Party (AJP) could fragment votes, particularly in key demographics.

Seat-sharing within alliances has been marked by internal frictions and strategic shifts, signalling underlying tensions. The NDA allocated 101 seats each to BJP and JDU, 29 to LJP(R), and six apiece to HAM and RLM, a parity for BJP and JDU unlike 2020, when JDU contested 115 against BJP's 110. Nitish Kumar's reluctance to fully integrate LJP(R)—blamed for denting JDU's 2020 tally from 73 to 41 seats—led to JDU fielding rebels against LJP(R) in five constituencies: Danapur, Hanswa, Arwal, Tarapur, and Lalganj.

The INDIA bloc, with RJD claiming 143 seats, Congress 61, CPI-ML 20, CPI nine, CPI-M four, VIP 15, and Independent Image Party (IIP) two, faces "friendly fights" in nine seats, including Vaishali (Congress vs RJD), Bachhwar (Congress vs CPI), and Jhanjharpur (VIP vs CPI-ML). Only Left parties finalised candidates democratically via district committees, while others grappled with ticket disputes; BJP's nomination of folk singer Maithili Thakur in Alinagar drew backlash from the incumbent MLA, echoing past celebrity inclusions in polls.

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Both blocs have projected change to combat anti-incumbency, with the INDIA alliance boldly naming RJD's Tejashwi Yadav as chief ministerial face and VIP's Mukesh Sahani as deputy at a joint press conference, pressuring NDA to reciprocate—though Union Home Minister Amit Shah, during a Patna visit to mediate seat rows, avoided endorsing Nitish explicitly, prompting speculation of post-poll realignments if JDU feels sidelined.

Prashant Kishor's JSP, launched October 2, 2024, after three years of grassroots outreach, introduces wildcard volatility; despite Kishor's flexible ideology—from JDU vice president in 2018 to critic—his vow to repeal Bihar's liquor ban risks alienating women voters, a pivotal bloc. Contesting as a novice, JSP may snag protest votes without many wins, potentially spoiling close races and splitting secular tallies to BJP's advantage, especially after Nitish's Waqf Bill support eroded his minority appeal.

Voter inducements dominate the narrative, with NDA touting eleventh-hour sops like Rs 10,000 loans (scalable to Rs 2 lakh) for 100 lakh women entrepreneurs—75 lakh from the Centre, 25 lakh state-funded—hiked old-age pensions from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100, and raised school cooks' salaries, alongside Prime Minister Narendra Modi's promise of one crore jobs in five years. The INDIA bloc counters with pledges of one government job per household, permanent roles and Rs 30,000 monthly salaries for Jeevika didis (self-help group women), and loan interest waivers, testing if such caste-transcending offers sway women and youth.

Broader trends paint a grim picture: declining candidates per constituency amid rising parties and coalitions, financial barriers via hiked deposits, EVM distrust fuelling NOTA surges, and reduced independent entries, reducing citizens to passive voters. As alliances navigate distrust and spoilers, Bihar's electorate—scarred by 2020's fluidity—may prioritise delivery over rhetoric in this high-stakes bipolar contest.

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