Bihar Assembly Polls: 30 Rebels Threaten NDA and Opposition Arithmetic

At least 30 rebel and independent candidates are contesting in the first phase of Bihar's 243-member Assembly elections, set for November 6, 2025, posing significant challenges to both the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan. These disruptions arise from internal discontent within major parties, where denied ticket aspirants have either joined smaller outfits like Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party or filed as independents. The surge in such candidatures could fragment votes in key constituencies, complicating poll arithmetic for alliances ahead of the second phase on November 11.

Nominations for two prominent figures—JD(U)'s Shashi Bhushan Singh from Sugauli and LJP (Ram Vilas)'s Seema Singh from Marhaura—were rejected on technical grounds, further fuelling tensions. Singh had contested as a Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) candidate, an INDIA bloc ally, while LJP (RV) aligns with the NDA.

Within the NDA, simmering frustrations have led to high-profile rebellions. JD(U) MLA Narendra Kumar Neeraj, popularly known as Gopal Mandal, is challenging the party's official nominee, former MP Shailesh Kumar (Bulo Mandal), as an independent from Gopalpur, a seat he has won four times. Similarly, BJP MLA Rashmi Verma is running independently against her party's candidate in Narkatiaganj.

These intra-alliance skirmishes extend to Patna's urban belt, including Digha, where BJP's sitting MLA Sanjeev Chaurasia faces a JD(U) rebel backed by Jan Suraaj, Ritesh Ranjan Singh, alongside CPI(ML) Liberation's Divya Gautam. Such splits risk diluting the NDA's strongholds, where coordinated efforts have historically secured victories. Analysts note that rebels often draw support from loyal local bases, potentially syphoning 5-10% of votes in tight races.

The opposition Mahagathbandhan is grappling with similar fissures. In Parihar, Ritu Jaiswal, who lost the 2020 election, has rebelled against the RJD's Smita Purbe—daughter-in-law of former state chief Ram Chandra Purbe—highlighting familial and factional rifts within the party. Constituencies like Patna Sahib, Kumhrar, Maner, Paliganj, Danapur, Bikram, and Barh are witnessing multi-cornered contests driven by disgruntled aspirants.

Prashant Kishor has alleged coercion and candidate withdrawals due to BJP pressure, amplifying perceptions of a volatile campaign. These independents and rebels, many backed by local strongmen or "bahubalis", could exploit anti-incumbency sentiments, echoing patterns from Bihar's 2020 polls, where fragmented opposition cost seats.

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As Bihar's elections unfold amid economic concerns and caste-based mobilisation, the rebels' presence underscores the fragility of alliances in the state's polarised politics. With over 1,100 candidates overall, the Election Commission anticipates heightened vigilance against inducements. For NDA and Mahagathbandhan leaders Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav, respectively, managing these headaches is crucial to retaining power. Outcomes from the first phase, covering 102 seats, will set the tone, potentially forcing post-poll recalibrations in a legislature where slim margins decide governments.

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