UAE Official Warns: Only 50% Chance of US-Iran Deal; Blames Tehran for 'Over-Negotiation' Pattern

A senior United Arab Emirates official on Friday said there is only a “50-50” chance of a final peace agreement between the United States and Iran, while accusing Tehran of repeatedly over-negotiating and missing diplomatic opportunities in the past. The remarks were made by Anwar Gargash during the Globsec conference in Prague, amid ongoing efforts to stabilize tensions in the Gulf region following months of military confrontation and disruptions to global energy supply routes.

Gargash, who serves as diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, warned that another round of military escalation would further destabilize the Middle East and damage global trade flows. According to Reuters, he said Iran has historically overestimated its bargaining position during negotiations, leading to repeated diplomatic failures. “It is a 50-50 chance that we will reach an agreement,” Gargash said, adding that he hoped Tehran would not repeat what he described as past strategic miscalculations.

The comments come as Pakistan continues to play a mediating role in ceasefire discussions between Washington and Tehran following months of conflict that disrupted maritime movement through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway remains one of the world’s most strategically significant shipping corridors, carrying nearly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. Concerns over the strait’s security have already triggered volatility in international energy markets and renewed fears of broader regional instability.

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Gargash stressed that any negotiations focused solely on securing a temporary ceasefire, without addressing deeper geopolitical tensions, could lead to renewed conflict in the future. He warned against any attempt to alter the status of the Strait of Hormuz or place it under Iranian leverage, arguing that such developments would have serious implications for global commerce and European energy security. The UAE official urged European countries to view the stability of the waterway as directly connected to their own economic interests.

The UAE has previously accused Iran of targeting civilian infrastructure during the conflict, including areas near American military facilities as well as desalination plants and energy installations around Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Iranian officials have denied several allegations made by Gulf states and Western governments during the confrontation, while continuing to insist that Tehran’s regional actions are defensive in nature and linked to national security concerns.

Diplomatic efforts involving regional and international actors have intensified in recent weeks as governments seek to prevent another escalation in the Gulf. Alongside Pakistan’s mediation attempts, countries including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE have pushed for a broader political settlement aimed at restoring maritime security, reducing military tensions, and ensuring uninterrupted energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts say the outcome of the ongoing negotiations could significantly shape regional stability and global energy markets in the months ahead.

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