Will Karnataka Witness a Leadership Shift or Is ‘November Revolution’ Just a Rumor?

Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah on Monday firmly rejected speculation of a "political revolution" in the state, labelling it a "delusion". Addressing rumours of a leadership change as the Congress government nears the halfway mark of its five-year term in November, Siddaramaiah reaffirmed his commitment to serving his full term. Speaking in Koppal, he dismissed the notion of a "November Kranti", stating, "There is no 'kranti' (revolution); it is only your 'branti' (delusion)." This follows his earlier assertion that he has served 2.5 years in his second term and intends to remain in office for the remaining duration.

Speculation about a change in Karnataka’s leadership has intensified recently, fuelled by claims of a power-sharing agreement between Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar. The alleged "rotational chief minister formula", reportedly agreed upon after the Congress’s victory in the May 2023 assembly elections, suggested Shivakumar would assume the CM post after 2.5 years.

However, no official confirmation of such an arrangement has been made by the Congress party. The competition between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar for the chief minister’s role was notable post-election, with the party ultimately appointing Shivakumar as deputy CM to resolve the leadership tussle.

Recent comments from Congress MLA H.D. Ranganath and former Mandya MP L.R. Shivarame Gowda have reignited the debate, with both claiming Shivakumar is poised to become CM in November. Meanwhile, Karnataka BJP President B.Y. Vijayendra added fuel to the speculation on Sunday, predicting "a lot of political changes" in the state following the Bihar assembly polls. Vijayendra cited internal Congress discussions as evidence of a potential leadership shift, though he provided no specifics.

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Siddaramaiah’s dismissal of these rumours underscores his focus on maintaining stability within the Congress government, which has prioritised welfare schemes and infrastructure development since taking office. As Karnataka approaches the midway point of its term, the ongoing speculation highlights internal dynamics within the ruling party, with no clear resolution in sight. Political observers note that any leadership change would require the approval of the Congress high command in Delhi, adding complexity to the unfolding narrative.

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