Rajya Sabha Polls Underway in Jammu & Kashmir After Article 370 Abrogation

Voting is underway today for the four Rajya Sabha seats from Jammu and Kashmir, marking the first such polls since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 and the bifurcation of the erstwhile state into two Union Territories. This historic election, held within the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly complex, underscores the territory's evolving political landscape amid heightened national attention.

The Election Commission of India has structured the process through three separate notifications for the four seats, with two seats contested individually and the remaining two under a combined notification. This setup has intensified the high-stakes rivalry between the ruling National Conference (NC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as both parties vie for dominance in the Upper House.

In the first seat, NC's veteran leader Chowdhury Mohammed Ramzan faces off against BJP's Ali Mohammed Mir in a direct showdown. The second seat pits NC's Sajjad Kitchloo against BJP's Rakesh Mahajan, promising a fierce ideological clash. For the third and fourth seats, covered under a single notification, NC has fielded party treasurer G S Oberoi (popularly known as Shammi Oberoi) and young spokesperson Imran Nabi Dar to challenge BJP's Jammu and Kashmir unit chief Sat Sharma.

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To bolster their candidates, the NC and its ally Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) issued three-line whips to their MLAs on Thursday, mandating their attendance and votes. The Congress and PDP have extended full support to the NC, solidifying the opposition's united front against the BJP.

Numerically, the NC appears poised for a strong performance. With its 41 MLAs augmented by support from six Congress members, three PDP legislators, one CPM representative, and six Independents, the coalition commands 57 votes in the 88-member Assembly—enough to secure three seats comfortably. The battle for the fourth seat, however, is expected to be nail-bitingly close, hinging on every vote and potential cross-voting.

The BJP, holding 28 seats, has tactically nominated Sat Sharma for the contested notification, aiming to leverage his influence in the Jammu region. Their position gained a slight boost last week when the Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Conference (JKPC), led by Sajad Gani Lone—a former ally in the BJP-PDP coalition—announced its decision to abstain from the polls, potentially neutralizing a wildcard factor.

NC leaders exude confidence, asserting that the party will clinch all four seats, thereby restoring full representation to the Union Territory in the Rajya Sabha. J&K has been without Rajya Sabha members since February 2021, following the end of terms for incumbents Ghulam Nabi Azad, Nazir Ahmed Laway, Fayaz Ahmed Mir, and Shamsheer Singh Manhas.

As polling progresses smoothly under tight security, political analysts view this election as a litmus test for regional alliances and the BJP's inroads into Kashmir Valley politics. The outcome could reshape national discourse on federalism and representation in the post-Article 370 era, with results anticipated soon after the conclusion of voting.

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