New IIT Mandi Climate Study Identifies Twelve High Risk Glacial Lakes In Himachal Pradesh

A comprehensive new study conducted by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Mandi has identified between nine and 12 glacial lakes in Himachal Pradesh as "critical," sparking fresh concerns over rapid Himalayan melting. The researchers evaluated over 2,000 glacial lakes across the state alongside numerous surrounding glaciers. The findings reveal that several of these water bodies have expanded by a staggering 30 to 60 percent over the past decade alone, dramatically elevating the threat of catastrophic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the region.

The scientific team warned that the environmental degradation extends far beyond surface water expansion, pointing to severe destabilisation taking place beneath and around the Himalayan glaciers. Rapidly rising temperatures are causing widespread permafrost melting, which degrades the structural integrity of the high-altitude mountain terrain. According to the IIT Mandi researchers, this subsurface thawing makes the slopes increasingly volatile, creating a dangerous compounding effect where fragile rock and ice could easily collapse into growing lakes and trigger sudden, massive downstream deluges.

The study explicitly highlights that escalating human activities are accelerating this environmental crisis. A surge in unmanaged regional tourism, rising localized pollution levels, and heavy dust deposits settling onto the pristine glacial surfaces are collectively lowering the ice's reflectivity. This phenomenon causes the glaciers to absorb more solar heat, rapidly expediting the melting process. The publication of these alarming findings coincides with recent devastating floods in neighboring Nepal, serving as a stark reminder of the immediate climate vulnerabilities faced by Himalayan communities.

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In response to the growing threat, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has singled out four specific high-risk lakes that require immediate, on-the-ground interventions: Ghepan Lake, Vasuki Lake, Kashang Lake, and an unnamed glacial lake situated near the Baspa River. The IIT Mandi data further narrows down the highest-hazard zones, concluding that Ghepan Lake, Yoche Lake, and Kali Kund Lake pose the absolute greatest risk to the state due to their continuous morphological transformations and aggressive annual expansion rates.

While the physical expansion of these lakes remains uniform, the immediate threat to human life varies significantly based on geographic location. For instance, even though Vasuki Lake is undergoes drastic size fluctuations, researchers noted that the total absence of human settlements for several kilometers downstream temporarily minimizes the associated risk of casualties. However, for lakes positioned directly above populated valleys and critical infrastructure, the lack of early warning systems and structural mitigation could soon prove catastrophic.

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