Jaishankar Warns of ‘Tariff Volatility’ as US Duties Hit Indian Exports

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar declared that "tariff volatility" is upending global trade calculations, pointing fingers at Washington's aggressive tariff hikes that have doubled duties on Indian exports to 50% over New Delhi's Russian oil purchases. Speaking at Jawaharlal Nehru University's School of International Studies during its 70th anniversary Aravali Summit, Jaishankar painted a picture of a world in flux, where economic strategies are being rewritten by protectionism and geopolitical maneuvering. The minister's remarks land like a thunderclap against the backdrop of President Donald Trump's tariff blitz. In August 2025, Trump slapped an additional 25% duty on Indian goods—on top of an existing 25% reciprocal tariff—effective from August 27, citing India's continued imports of discounted Russian crude amid the Ukraine conflict.

This punitive measure, which economists warn could shave up to 1% off India's GDP growth and slash exports in key sectors like textiles, gems, and pharmaceuticals by as much as 70%, has chilled bilateral ties that once promised a $500 billion trade bonanza by 2030. "India buys most of its oil and military products from Russia, very little from the US," Trump griped on social media in September, dismissing the partnership as "totally one-sided" despite New Delhi's concessions like slashing tariffs on US motorcycles and whiskey earlier in the year.

Jaishankar didn't name the US outright but his oblique jabs were unmistakable. "Trade calculations are being overturned by tariff volatility," he said, weaving it into a broader tapestry of global disruptions. He highlighted how one-third of world manufacturing has consolidated in a single geography—a clear nod to China's dominance—creating fragile supply chains vulnerable to shocks. Anti-globalization fervor is surging, he noted, as nations prioritize security over cost, with "end-to-end" risks from production concentration to market dependencies amplifying vulnerabilities.

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The EAM delved deeper into the seismic shifts reshaping the planet: The US has morphed into a fossil fuel powerhouse, exporting energy while China leads in renewables, fostering rival models for data harnessing and AI evolution. Big Tech wields unprecedented clout, new connectivity routes—like China's Belt and Road—serve strategic ends, and mobility debates pit skills shortages against social backlash. Finance is in turmoil too, with sanctions, asset seizures, and cryptocurrency's rise clashing against hunts for rare earths and critical minerals, where "competition has become visceral" amid tightening tech controls.

Warfare itself has evolved, Jaishankar cautioned, into standoff, high-impact operations laced with greater risks, while "tech penetration and manipulation" erodes sovereignty. Global rules are being "revisited and discarded," he said, as balance-of-power diplomacy yields to "margins of power" brinkmanship. "The world is witnessing more competition and less compacts," driven by the "weaponisation of everything," leaving nations in a high-stakes scramble.

For India, the message was clear: Adapt or perish. "While most countries struggle to cope or defend their interests, India must strategize and rise amidst this volatility," Jaishankar urged, emphasizing the need to "de-risk exposures yet take calculated risks." Analysts and policymakers, he stressed, must decode this "complex and evolving landscape" to chart India's path upward in the global hierarchy.

Fielding a student's query on whether India's foreign policy is "agnostic or independent," Jaishankar quipped, "To some extent, both." Drawing parallels to the Cold War-era Indo-Soviet pact, he defended pragmatic alignments: "We were boxed in by a US-Pakistan-China triangle. That wasn't the time for neutrality—our national interest was the only side that mattered." Today, he added, when nations invoke international law selectively—"Where were you when that principle applied to me?"—India prioritizes self-interest above all. "Principles matter, but national interest trumps everything."

Jaishankar's speech, delivered to a packed hall of academics and students, underscores New Delhi's balancing act: Wooing the West for tech and defense while hedging with Russia for energy affordability. As US-India talks stall—despite Modi's February White House charm offensive—the tariffs threaten jobs for millions and disrupt supply chains, from Foxconn's iPhone plants to gem exporters in Surat. Yet, experts see silver linings: The shock could accelerate India's "China Plus One" pivot, boosting domestic manufacturing under Atmanirbhar Bharat. With Trump eyeing even steeper pharma duties, Jaishankar's clarion call resonates: In this era of "less inhibition to use available tools," India's rise demands shrewd navigation, not submission.

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