Istanbul Peace Talks Begin; Pakistan Warns of Open War With Afghanistan

Pakistan and Afghanistan commenced the second round of peace talks in Istanbul on Saturday, mediated by Qatar and Turkey, amid escalating border tensions and warnings from Islamabad of potential "open war" should negotiations collapse. The Afghan delegation, led by Deputy Interior Minister Rahmatullah Mujib and including Anas Haqqani, faces a two-member Pakistani security team. The discussions follow a turbulent period marked by clashes along the Durand Line, drone strikes in Kabul, and mutual accusations of harbouring militants. Pakistan seeks verifiable commitments from the Taliban government to dismantle the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which Islamabad claims launches cross-border attacks from Afghan soil.

Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, who headed the first round in Doha on October 18–19, issued stark rhetoric during a public address in Sialkot, stating that failure in Istanbul could leave Pakistan with "no choice but to engage in open conflict." Despite the threat, Asif noted both sides appear inclined toward peace, with outcomes expected by Sunday. Islamabad is pushing for a third-party oversight mechanism co-chaired by Turkey and Qatar to monitor compliance, reflecting deep distrust after years of failed counterterrorism cooperation. The talks occur against a backdrop of heightened regional friction, including Afghanistan's recent announcement to accelerate dam construction on the Kunar River—a move likely to strain water-sharing dynamics downstream in Pakistan.

The Istanbul dialogue builds on fragile ceasefires brokered after recent hostilities, including artillery exchanges and aerial incursions. Pakistan views the TTP as an existential threat, blaming Kabul for providing sanctuary despite repeated denials from the Taliban. Conversely, Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of airspace violations and supporting anti-Taliban factions. The Kunar dam initiative, ordered by Taliban Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada to prioritise domestic contractors, mirrors India’s earlier suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty following a Pakistan-linked terror attack in April 2025. These parallel actions signal a hardening of hydro-diplomatic postures across South Asia’s river systems.

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As the talks unfold, international stakeholders—including the US, China, and India—are closely monitoring developments, given the potential for spillover into broader regional instability. Success in establishing verifiable anti-TTP measures and border de-escalation protocols could pave the way for normalised ties, but failure risks reigniting conflict in one of the world’s most volatile frontiers. With Sunday’s deadline looming, the Istanbul process represents a critical juncture for averting a full-scale confrontation between two nuclear-armed neighbours bound by geography yet divided by decades of mistrust.

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