India's Population Set to Peak Below 2 Billion by 2080 as Fertility Rate Dips Sharply
India's fertility rate falls to 1.9, projecting population stabilization at 1.8-1.9 billion by 2080.
India's population is projected to stabilize around 1.8 to 1.9 billion by 2080, driven by a total fertility rate (TFR) that has dropped to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1. This marks a rapid demographic shift, with the TFR declining from 3.5 in 2000 to its current level, according to Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP) General Secretary Anil Chandran. All estimates confirm the peak will remain under two billion, averting earlier concerns about uncontrolled growth.
Key factors include rising development, education, and female literacy, which have reshaped family planning decisions and led to smaller households. Greater access to contraceptives empowers couples to control family size, while delayed marriages and women's career opportunities further contribute to lower birth rates. Among educated groups, TFR ranges from 1.5 to 1.8, compared to over three among illiterate populations, illustrating development's inverse relationship with fertility.
Regional trends highlight this progress: Kerala reached replacement-level fertility in the late 1980s and now stands at about 1.5. West Bengal's TFR fell to 1.3 by 2023 from 1.7 in 2013—a nearly 18% drop—placing it among India's lowest, alongside Tamil Nadu and ahead of Delhi, with the nation's lowest urban TFR and second-lowest rural rate.
As birth rates decline, rising life expectancy—fueled by healthcare improvements—creates new challenges like elderly care amid youth migration for work. Solutions such as day-care facilities for seniors are gaining attention. The IASP, founded in 1971 with around 1,100 experts, continues to analyze these dynamics with support from organizations like UNFPA.
Also Read: Putin’s India Summit: Arms Deals and Rising Oil Trade Redefine Historic Ties
