India Night Power Crunch: Weak Hydro, Coal Outages and Thin Storage Squeeze States

Several states are seeking additional electricity from the Centre to prevent power outages, particularly during night-time hours, as weaker hydropower generation, lower wind output and maintenance at coal-fired plants tighten the supply balance. Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi are among the states that have sought additional supplies, according to two federal government officials. The Centre normally has around 14-15 GW of electricity from coal and hydropower plants that can be allocated to states during periods of shortage, but reduced hydropower generation has limited that flexibility. The situation has become more challenging because electricity demand remains strong, particularly from industrial consumers.

The immediate pressure is being felt after sunset, when solar generation falls sharply and demand remains high. India has expanded its renewable-energy capacity rapidly, allowing solar power to meet a significant share of daytime electricity requirements, but limited battery storage means much of that generation cannot be shifted to the evening and night. Hydropower has also provided less support than expected. Hydropower output fell 20% year-on-year in September following an El Nino-related decline in rainfall, according to the report. Wind generation has also been weaker, while several coal-fired plants are undergoing maintenance, reducing the amount of conventional generation available when the system needs it most.

The power shortage reached 560 million kilowatt-hours in September, its highest level since August 2023, despite a substantial increase in coal-fired electricity generation. Government data showed that coal-based generation rose 13.3% from a year earlier as power demand remained strong. However, the additional coal generation was not enough to compensate for weaker hydropower and generation capacity lost because of maintenance. Grid India data showed that nearly 41 GW of power plants were offline. At the same time, around 47% of coal-fired power plants were reported to have critical fuel stocks, with supplies below a quarter of their mandated levels, adding another constraint to the system.

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The Centre is also facing limits in how much additional electricity it can provide to states without affecting supplies elsewhere. One of the officials said that meeting fresh requests could require electricity to be withdrawn from other states because much of the available capacity for redistribution has already been committed. Punjab has already received additional electricity from the Centre after some parts of the state experienced outages lasting up to 14 hours a day in September. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the media, while the Ministry of Power did not respond to a request for comment.

The prolonged pressure has also exposed gaps in electricity procurement planning by states. Rupesh Sankhe, a research analyst at Elara Securities, said states had not adequately planned their power purchases because they had not expected the hot weather to continue for as long as it has. As a result, some states have become more dependent on buying electricity through power exchanges at a time when prices have risen. Sankhe attributed the supply squeeze to a combination of strong industrial demand, weaker hydropower and wind generation and maintenance at coal-fired plants. Together, these factors have narrowed the margin between available electricity and demand, particularly during the hours when solar generation is no longer available.

The situation has also highlighted the importance of battery storage as India continues to add renewable-energy capacity. Solar power can produce large amounts of electricity during the day, but without adequate storage, that energy cannot easily be carried into the evening and night, when demand can remain high. Officials said the Power Ministry has been encouraging renewable-energy producers to accelerate the integration of battery storage systems. Such storage could allow surplus daytime solar power to be saved and released after sunset, reducing dependence on coal and hydropower during peak evening demand. For now, however, weaker hydro and wind output, maintenance-related outages, limited coal stocks at several plants and strong electricity demand continue to leave multiple states seeking additional supplies from the Centre.

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