India Monsoon 2026: IMD Cuts Forecast to 90% as El Nino Threatens Key Farming Regions

India is likely to experience a below-average southwest monsoon in 2026 after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revised its rainfall forecast downward, citing the expected emergence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The IMD on Friday projected that the country would receive rainfall equivalent to 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) during the June-to-September monsoon season, placing the forecast firmly in the “below normal” category and raising concerns over agriculture, water availability, and rural livelihoods.

The revised estimate marks a further downgrade from the IMD’s earlier April forecast, which had predicted rainfall at 92 per cent of the LPA. Officials from the Ministry of Earth Sciences said evolving atmospheric and oceanic conditions, particularly in the Equatorial Pacific region, prompted the reassessment. Dr. M. Ravichandran, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, stated that the anticipated monsoon performance reflects growing evidence of a developing El Niño pattern that could weaken rainfall activity across large parts of the country.

According to the IMD, rainfall distribution is expected to vary significantly across regions. Northwest India is likely to receive near-normal rainfall, while Central India, South Peninsular India, Northeast India, and the monsoon core zone are all expected to record below-normal precipitation. The monsoon core zone includes major rain-fed agricultural regions that depend heavily on seasonal rainfall for sowing crops such as rice, pulses, and oilseeds, making the forecast particularly concerning for the farm sector and food supply chains.

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Meteorologists explained that El Nino events are associated with unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which disrupt global weather systems and often weaken the Indian monsoon. The phenomenon affects the Walker circulation, reducing cross-equatorial moisture flow and shifting rainfall patterns eastward. IMD Director General Mr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra warned that a strong or “super” El Niño could intensify during the latter half of the monsoon season, particularly between July and September, potentially worsening rainfall deficiencies.

The weather department also forecast below-normal rainfall during June itself, with precipitation expected to remain below 92 percent of the LPA nationwide. At the same time, above-normal temperatures are likely over several parts of the country, except for isolated regions in Central and Northwest India. Despite the weaker seasonal outlook, officials said conditions remain favorable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala next week, which traditionally marks the formal beginning of India’s rainy season.

Experts warned that a deficient monsoon could have broad economic consequences because nearly 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall is received during the southwest monsoon period. Reduced rainfall may affect reservoir levels, hydroelectric power generation, and drinking water supplies, while also increasing the risk of food inflation if agricultural output declines. With India’s rural economy still heavily dependent on monsoon-driven farming, policymakers and meteorologists are expected to closely monitor the evolving El Nino conditions and issue updated forecasts in the coming months.

Also Read: IMD Forecasts Thunderstorms And Light Rain Across North India In Next Two Days