IMD Predicts Monsoon Arrival In Kerala Within Two Days, Early Onset Confirmed
Monsoon expected to reach Kerala within two days.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said the southwest monsoon is expected to reach Kerala within the next two to three days, marking the official onset of India’s primary rainy season, which typically begins around June 1. In its latest forecast, the IMD said conditions are favourable for further advancement of the monsoon into parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep Islands, and regions of Kerala and Tamil Nadu over the next 48 to 72 hours. The weather system is also expected to progress into more areas of the Bay of Bengal during the same period.
The department had earlier projected the monsoon’s arrival over Kerala on May 26, but the onset was delayed due to evolving atmospheric conditions. On May 29, the IMD revised its forecast, indicating that the rains would likely arrive in the first week of June instead. The monsoon’s progress is closely monitored as it plays a critical role in India’s agriculture-dependent economy. It also influences water storage, crop cycles, and overall economic activity across large parts of the country. The IMD’s advance estimates are considered key indicators for planning in both rural and urban sectors.
In its broader seasonal outlook, the weather department has projected below-normal rainfall for the year, estimating that India is likely to receive about 90% of its Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall. The LPA, based on rainfall data from 1971 to 2020, stands at approximately 87 centimetres for the country as a whole. The IMD classifies seasonal rainfall below 90% of the LPA as “deficient,” raising concerns about potential impacts on agriculture, particularly in rain-fed regions. The department has also noted that emerging climate patterns could influence rainfall distribution across the season.
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According to the IMD, neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions are currently transitioning towards El Niño in the equatorial Pacific region. El Niño conditions are typically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India. The weather agency added that El Niño conditions are expected to remain weak in June but could strengthen to moderate or even strong levels by September, making the progression of the monsoon season closely dependent on evolving ocean-atmosphere patterns.
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