IMD Predicts 15% Above-Normal Rainfall for India in October
Post-monsoon season likely to bring surplus showers, driven by low-pressure systems and climatic variability.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts 15% above-normal rainfall across India in October, building on a surplus monsoon season that delivered 8% more rainfall than the long-term average from June to September. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra announced Tuesday that October’s rainfall is expected to exceed 115% of the long-period average (LPA) of 75.4 mm, driven by low-pressure systems forming in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, alongside intra-seasonal atmospheric patterns. This forecast signals a wet start to the post-monsoon season (October-December), which is critical for replenishing reservoirs and supporting rabi crop sowing, which underpins India’s $410 billion agricultural sector.
The Northeast Monsoon, vital for South Peninsular India—encompassing Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and South Interior Karnataka—is projected to exceed 112% of its LPA of 334.13 mm, based on 1971-2020 data. This surplus could boost yields for crops like rice and pulses but risks flooding in vulnerable areas, as seen in Chennai’s 2023 inundations. Conversely, northwest India, including parts of Rajasthan and Punjab, and isolated pockets in the southern peninsula and northeast, may see normal to below-normal rainfall, potentially straining regions reliant on groundwater, where deficits persist despite recent reservoir gains reported by the Central Water Commission.
Temperature forecasts indicate above-normal maximums in east-northeast and northwest India, potentially challenging agricultural activities in states like Uttar Pradesh, where heat stress could affect early rabi sowing. Central and southern regions, however, are likely to experience normal to below-normal temperatures, offering respite after summer highs. The IMD’s projections, powered by advanced climate models and real-time satellite data, highlight the influence of global patterns like the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which amplifies monsoon activity. With India’s economy targeting 7% growth in 2025-26, per RBI estimates, the rainfall outlook could stabilise food prices, currently at 5.1% inflation.
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The IMD has urged state authorities to bolster flood preparedness, particularly in urban centres like Bengaluru, where drainage systems face strain. The forecast aligns with India’s broader climate resilience efforts, emphasised at COP29, as erratic weather patterns underscore the need for adaptive infrastructure. With 60% of agriculture rain-fed, October’s excess rainfall could enhance rural incomes but demands vigilant monitoring to mitigate waterlogging risks. The IMD will issue updated advisories as the season progresses to guide farmers and policymakers.
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