IIT Guwahati Study Predicts Glacial Lake Formation Risk in Eastern Himalayas

Researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Guwahati have identified 492 regions across the Himalayas where glacial lakes are likely to form, warning that these sites pose a serious risk of sudden flooding events capable of impacting densely populated areas far downstream.

The findings, published in the journal Scientific Reports, focus primarily on the Eastern Himalayas and highlight the growing threat of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Such floods occur when natural barriers holding glacial lakes collapse abruptly, releasing massive volumes of water. Past disasters, including the 1985 Dig Tsho GLOF in Nepal and the 2012 Kedarnath tragedy in India, have demonstrated the destructive potential of these events.

According to the study, glacial lake formation is not random but concentrated in specific geomorphological zones. The research analyzed 12,924 Google Earth images collected between 2018 and 2022, covering parts of Arunachal Pradesh and neighboring regions of Tibet. Using this extensive dataset, the team developed a data-driven framework to assess the probability of glacial lake formation across the region.

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Machine learning models were combined with geomorphological and topographic factors to improve prediction accuracy. Features such as the presence of neighboring lakes, cirques, gentle slopes, and retreating glaciers emerged as the strongest indicators of potential lake formation. The study emphasizes that geomorphology, often underrepresented in earlier models, plays a crucial role in understanding these risks.

Ajay Dashora, Assistant Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering at IIT Guwahati, said the framework offers a practical tool for reducing risks to Himalayan communities and infrastructure. By identifying high-risk zones, the approach can support early-warning systems for GLOFs, guide safer planning for roads, hydropower projects, and settlements, and aid long-term water resource management.

The researchers added that the framework is adaptable to other glaciated mountain regions worldwide. With climate change accelerating glacier retreat and increasing exposure of vulnerable populations and critical infrastructure, the study underscores the importance of predictive tools in disaster-risk reduction and climate-resilient development planning.

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