Himalayan Glaciers Melting 65% Faster Than A Decade Ago, Black Carbon Largely To Blame: Study

Himalayan glaciers are losing mass 65 per cent faster than they were a decade ago, with black carbon responsible for nearly one-third of the melting, according to a new study. The report warned that the Hindu Kush Himalayan region could lose up to 80 per cent of its current glacier volume by 2100 if present trends continue. The findings highlight the growing climate and disaster risks facing one of the world’s most important mountain ecosystems, which supports millions of people and supplies water to major river systems across Asia.

The study was conducted by global consultancy Systemiq in collaboration with the Integrated Mountain Initiative, with contributions from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development and the GB Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment. It noted that the Himalayan region occupies around 18 per cent of India’s land area but accounts for approximately 35 per cent of disasters and contributes more than 20 per cent to the country’s gross domestic product. Researchers said increasing pressure from development, pollution, warming temperatures and poorly planned infrastructure was placing the region’s fragile systems under severe stress.

The report identified black carbon as one of the most immediate factors that can be addressed through regional action. The pollutant, largely released by sources such as brick kilns in the plains, travels towards the mountains and settles on glacier surfaces. This dark layer absorbs more sunlight and accelerates the melting of snow and ice. While global warming remains a major driver of glacier loss, the study said black carbon represents a more direct and manageable intervention point for India and neighbouring countries seeking to slow the pace of ice loss.

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The findings come weeks after a glacial collapse triggered devastating flash floods in Nepal, reportedly killing at least 1,350 people and leaving several hundred others missing. The report also raised concerns over the limited monitoring of glaciers across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Of the nearly 40,000 estimated glaciers in the region, only around 21 are being monitored, including approximately 16 to 17 in India. Researchers warned that the lack of reliable surveillance and early-warning systems makes it difficult to anticipate sudden glacial, permafrost and slope-related hazards.

The study further warned that most Himalayan river basins are expected to reach “peak water” around the middle of the century. This refers to the stage when glacier meltwater reaches its maximum before declining as the volume of stored ice diminishes. Such changes could initially increase flood risks and later create serious water shortages for communities, agriculture, industries and cities dependent on Himalayan rivers. The report said stronger risk mapping, early-warning systems and scientific planning would be essential to prepare for these changes.

Among its recommendations, the report called for a ten-fold action approach that includes reducing soot emissions across glacier-linked airsheds, placing around three million hectares of fire-prone forests under year-round management, restoring and protecting nearly half of the region’s drying springs, and regulating tourist numbers according to the carrying capacity of fragile mountain areas. It also urged governments to prioritise hazard science before approving development projects and shift from simply observing risks to actively managing them. ICIMOD Director General Pema Gyamtsho said cross-border monitoring, shared risk information, early-warning systems and joint investment in resilience were increasingly necessary to protect lives, livelihoods and economies across the region.

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