Exit Polls Predict NDA Victory in Bihar; RJD-Congress Trail Far Behind, Jan Suraaj Struggles

Exit polls released shortly after the conclusion of the second and final phase of voting for Bihar's 243-seat assembly elections, signal a resounding victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), projecting the BJP-JD(U) coalition and allies like Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) to secure 130-167 seats—comfortably above the 122-seat majority threshold. The surveys, from agencies including P-Marq, Dainik Bhaskar, Matrize, People's Insight, Peoples Pulse, JVC, and DVC Research, highlight strong voter consolidation behind Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's governance model, with NDA vote shares estimated at 46-48%. Voting in the second phase covered 122 constituencies across 20 districts, following the first phase on November 6, with over 67% turnout by 5 PM—higher than the 65% in phase one—amid robust security and appeals from leaders like Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. Results are due on November 14.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), comprising the Congress and Left parties, which positioned Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial candidate, is forecasted to manage only 70-108 seats, a significant drop from the 75 RJD secured independently in 2020 when the bloc nearly toppled the NDA. Polls attribute the opposition's setback to fragmented mobilization on caste census and jobs, overshadowed by NDA's narrative on infrastructure, ethanol plants, and women's welfare schemes.

P-Marq projects NDA at 142-162 seats and Mahagathbandhan at 80-98; Dainik Bhaskar sees 145-160 for NDA and 73-91 for the alliance; Matrize forecasts 147-167 and 70-90, respectively. People's Insight and Peoples Pulse offer 133-148 and 133-159 for NDA, with Mahagathbandhan at 87-102 and 75-101. JVC is more cautious at 135-150 for NDA and 88-133 for the opposition.

Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, debuting with candidates in all seats and touting anti-corruption as its edge in Bihar's volatile politics, faces a dismal outlook, projected to win 0-5 seats despite a 9-13% vote share in some estimates. Seen as a potential kingmaker, the strategist—whose past campaigns propelled Nitish in 2010 and Narendra Modi in 2014—hyped limiting JD(U) to under 30 seats, but polls like Dainik Bhaskar (0 seats), Matrize (0-2), and People's Insight (0-2) dismiss it outright, with Peoples Pulse (0-5) and P-Marq (1-4) offering slim hope. JVC and DVC Research cap it at 1 and 2-4 seats. Analysts cite candidate withdrawals and vote-splitting as reasons for the flop, underscoring Bihar's bipolar NDA vs. Mahagathbandhan dominance.

These projections, while favoring NDA continuity for Nitish's ninth term, come with caveats: exit polls have faltered in Bihar before, as in 2015 when they underestimated Mahagathbandhan's 178-seat sweep against a predicted razor-thin win. The NDA's 2023 seat-sharing (101 each for BJP and JD(U), 29 for LJP) balanced castes, while RJD's 143 seats banked on Yadav-Muslim loyalty. Voter turnout spikes, especially among women (68%), signal high stakes, influencing national dynamics ahead of 2029 Lok Sabha.

As opposition leaders like Tejashwi Yadav label polls "manipulated," and NDA exudes confidence, the November 14 count will test these forecasts. A NDA landslide could solidify Modi's "double-engine" governance, while a upset might revive caste-based alliances. For Kishor, the debut dud risks his strategist aura, though his 9% vote share hints at future niche potential. Bihar's verdict, blending development pledges with arithmetic, remains a barometer for Indian politics.