Amit Shah Calls For Zero Disaster Casualties Amid Earlier ISRO Warnings

Union Home Minister Amit Shah has set an ambitious goal for India’s disaster management system: achieving “zero casualty” during disasters. Chairing the third meeting of the Governing Body of the National Institute of Disaster Management in New Delhi earlier this week, Shah said the country’s approach has shifted from primarily focusing on relief and rehabilitation towards risk reduction, early warning systems and prevention of loss of life.

Shah highlighted the role of advance warnings and coordinated responses in reducing casualties during disasters. However, the goal also raises questions about how effectively scientific warnings are translated into action, particularly in the Himalayan region. The recent flooding in Nepal’s Rasuwa, reportedly triggered by a mud and ice avalanche and resulting in a major loss of life, has once again underlined the dangers posed by rapidly changing mountain environments.

The risks have been documented by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). In an assessment released in April 2024, ISRO examined satellite imagery covering four decades, from 1984 to 2023, and found that 676 of 2,431 identified glacial lakes larger than 10 hectares had expanded significantly. Of these, 130 were located in India, including 65 in the Indus basin, seven in the Ganga basin and 58 in the Brahmaputra basin. Nearly 89 per cent of the expanding lakes had grown to more than twice their original size, with many located at altitudes above 4,000 metres.

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The findings are significant because many Himalayan glacial lakes are moraine-dammed, meaning they are held back by loose rock and sediment left behind by retreating glaciers. Such natural barriers can be vulnerable to avalanches, landslides, earthquakes, heavy rainfall and continued glacial melting. ISRO cited Ghepang Ghat glacial lake in Himachal Pradesh as one example, noting that its area increased by 178 per cent between 1989 and 2022. India’s experience with Kedarnath in 2013, the Chamoli disaster in 2021 and the South Lhonak Lake GLOF in Sikkim in 2023 has further demonstrated the destructive potential of extreme weather and glacier-related hazards.

India has made considerable progress in converting scientific monitoring into early warnings in other disaster-prone areas. Cyclone forecasting, supported by satellites and Doppler radars, has helped dramatically reduce cyclone-related casualties compared with historical disasters, while the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System established after the 2004 tsunami has strengthened preparedness for coastal threats. The challenge in the Himalayas is more complex because rapidly evolving glaciers, unstable lakes and difficult terrain require continuous monitoring and fast communication with vulnerable communities.

Shah’s call for a “whole of government approach” therefore places greater importance on connecting scientific warnings with ground-level preparedness. Satellite observations can identify changes in glacial lakes, but achieving zero casualties would also require timely alerts, hazard mapping, evacuation plans, drills and resilient infrastructure in vulnerable regions. With ISRO and other scientific agencies continuing to monitor the Himalayan cryosphere, the central challenge is ensuring that warnings identified from space lead to effective action on the ground before disasters strike.

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