After Weeks of Dry Weather, Heavy Rain to Lash Tamil Nadu soon

After nearly three weeks of subdued northeast monsoon activity, Tamil Nadu is gearing up for a wet spell as widespread rainfall is expected to return by the weekend. The Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), Chennai, has forecast a significant revival in rainfall activity across coastal and delta districts between November 17 and 20, ending an unusually dry start to November. According to RMC officials, light to moderate showers will continue in isolated areas until November 15 before intensifying later in the week.

The weather office has issued alerts for heavy rainfall at isolated places across Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Mayiladuthurai, Cuddalore, Villupuram, Chengalpattu, and Puducherry on November 17. Similar conditions are likely to persist over adjoining coastal belts the following day. The shift is expected to bring much-needed relief to several parched districts, including the Cauvery delta, which has been struggling with a major rainfall deficit this season. “Rainfall activity is set to increase, becoming widespread over coastal districts from November 16,” confirmed P. Senthamarai Kannan, Director of the Area Cyclone Warning Centre, Chennai.

Tamil Nadu has recorded just 15.1 mm of rain so far in November, far below its normal of 181.7 mm, making it one of the driest starts to the month in recent years. For comparison, the state had received 425 mm in 2021 and 233 mm in 2023 during the same period. The deficit is particularly severe in delta and northern districts, including Nagapattinam (–48%), Karaikal (–35%), and Mayiladuthurai (–30%), as per data from the meteorological department. Chennai, which typically witnesses consistent coastal showers during early November, has seen only intermittent drizzles.

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Meteorologists attribute the lull to weak atmospheric systems over the Bay of Bengal that disrupted the northeast monsoon’s progress. Mahesh Palawat, Vice President (Meteorology and Climate Change) at Skymet Weather, explained that the absence of strong weather disturbances prevented moisture-laden winds from reaching the Tamil Nadu coast. “Cyclone Montha’s movement towards Andhra and shallow circulations near the Bay disturbed the northeasterly flow, weakening rainfall patterns over Tamil Nadu,” he said. He added that La Niña years often suppress rainfall over southern India due to changes in global wind dynamics.

Despite recent dry conditions, weather experts predict a sharp rebound as atmospheric conditions align for renewed activity. Weather blogger K. Srikanth wrote that an emerging east–west shear zone could fuel widespread rainfall across northern and delta districts, including Chennai and Chengalpattu. “The monsoon is gearing up for its second power play,” he noted, suggesting that rainfall could remain active into early December if a new low-pressure system forms near the Andaman Sea later this month. As the northeast monsoon regains strength, officials hope Tamil Nadu can recover from early deficits and potentially end November with surplus rainfall across several regions.

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