World Meteorological Organization Predicts El Niño Development By May 2026
El Nino likely by May 2026, warns WMO
The World Meteorological Organization has indicated that El Niño conditions are likely to develop as early as May 2026, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global weather patterns in the months ahead. The warning comes as climate models show a rapid warming trend in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
According to the WMO’s latest assessment, there is a growing probability that the current neutral climate phase will transition into El Niño between May and July. Multiple forecast systems point to a “rapid transition into El Niño territory,” with some suggesting the event could strengthen further by mid-2026.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It typically occurs every two to seven years and can last between nine and 12 months, significantly influencing global temperature and rainfall patterns.
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If the event materialises, it could lead to wide-ranging climate impacts. Experts say El Niño often brings hotter and drier conditions to parts of Asia and Australia, while increasing rainfall in regions such as the Americas and parts of Africa. It can also contribute to a temporary rise in global temperatures.
The WMO has cautioned that forecasts made during the Northern Hemisphere spring carry some uncertainty, often referred to as the “spring predictability barrier.” However, confidence in projections is expected to improve as more data becomes available in the coming weeks.
The potential return of El Niño is being closely monitored worldwide, particularly by governments and sectors such as agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness. Authorities are likely to step up contingency planning as clearer signals emerge about the strength and duration of the event.
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