Will Killing Hamas Leaders Change the Course of Israel-Gaza Conflict?

Israel’s recent targeted killings of senior Hamas military figures have once again brought the strategy of “decapitation strikes” into focus, even as questions persist over whether such operations can alter the deeper trajectory of the conflict. Over the past two weeks, Israeli forces have reportedly killed Mohammed Odeh and Izz al-Din al-Haddad, both described as senior commanders in Hamas’ military wing and key figures linked to the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel.

The strikes are part of an ongoing campaign aimed at dismantling the group’s operational leadership and degrading its military capabilities. Israeli officials have framed the killings as tactical successes within a broader effort to hold accountable those responsible for the 2023 assault that triggered the current war in Gaza. The operations also reflect Israel’s long-standing doctrine of targeting militant leadership in an attempt to disrupt command structures and reduce the effectiveness of armed groups.

However, analysts and conflict observers argue that while such strikes may deliver short-term operational gains and political signalling victories, they are unlikely to resolve the underlying drivers of the conflict. The removal of senior commanders, they say, does not necessarily weaken the organisational resilience or ideological foundations of groups like Hamas.

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Nasser Khdour of the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) noted that the elimination of high-ranking military leaders demonstrates Israel’s intelligence and operational reach, but is unlikely to compel Hamas to disarm or relinquish its role in Gaza’s governance and security structure. In his assessment, leadership losses alone do not fundamentally change the group’s strategic objectives.

The pattern is not unique to Hamas. Historical precedents in the region suggest that targeted killings have often failed to produce decisive long-term outcomes. Hezbollah, for instance, continued to grow in strength following the 1992 killing of its leader Abbas Musawi by Israeli forces. Under his successor Hassan Nasrallah, the group expanded its military capabilities and political influence, eventually becoming one of the region’s most powerful armed actors.

Even after significant losses in later conflicts, including the reported killing of Nasrallah and several senior deputies during the 2024 war, Hezbollah demonstrated resilience by resuming cross-border attacks within days of renewed hostilities. These developments underscore the argument that while leadership decapitation can disrupt operations, it rarely eliminates the structural conditions that sustain prolonged conflicts in the region.

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