US and Russia Face Unrestrained Nuclear Arms Race as New START Expires in Days
New START treaty expires in days, risking nuclear arms race unless US accepts Putin's one-year extension proposal.
The United States and Russia are approaching a potential nuclear arms race reminiscent of the Cold War as the New START treaty, the last remaining arms control agreement between the two powers, is set to expire on February 5. Without an extension or replacement, there would be no limits on long-range nuclear arsenals for the first time in decades.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed extending the existing missile and warhead limits for one year to buy time for negotiations on a successor treaty. U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to formally respond, fueling uncertainty over whether both countries can avoid an unrestrained nuclear buildup.
New START, signed in 2010 by Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, caps deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 per side and limits delivery systems to 700. Experts warn that without such constraints, both countries could make assumptions about each other’s nuclear programs, potentially destabilizing global security and prompting a rapid expansion of arsenals.
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The situation is further complicated by China’s growing nuclear capabilities, currently estimated at 600 warheads, potentially reaching over 1,000 by 2030. Some U.S. policymakers argue that Washington should reject Putin’s offer to extend limits, citing the need to counter China’s rapid build-up and to maintain a credible deterrent against both Moscow and Beijing.
Analysts remain divided over the best course of action. Arms control advocates warn that exceeding treaty limits would trigger a costly and destabilizing arms race, with U.S. taxpayers facing nearly $1 trillion in nuclear modernization costs through 2034. Conversely, former officials stress that current arsenals may be insufficient to deter Russia and China simultaneously.
As the deadline approaches, both nations face a high-stakes decision that will shape global strategic stability. While Putin has expressed readiness for any eventuality, U.S. officials say the president will announce his approach to nuclear arms control on his own timeline, leaving the international community watching anxiously.
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