UN Projects Global Temperatures To Remain Near Record Highs Through 2030
UN warns global temperatures likely remain near record highs.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels through the end of this decade, with a high probability that the 2026–2030 period will become the hottest five-year span ever recorded. In its latest global climate outlook, the UN weather agency said there is a 75 percent chance that the average temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline), a threshold set under the Paris Agreement as a critical limit for long-term warming.
The report highlights an accelerating trend in global heating driven by greenhouse gas emissions and natural climate variability. The WMO also noted that there is an 86 percent probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record. Scientists attribute this ongoing spike in temperatures to the combined effects of human-driven climate change and cyclical phenomena such as El Niño, which can temporarily intensify global warming.
According to the forecast, annual global temperatures during the period are likely to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels. The agency further warned that there is a 91 percent chance of at least one year temporarily breaching the 1.5°C threshold, underscoring how frequently this critical limit is now being approached or exceeded. The report also pointed to the influence of an expected El Niño event toward the end of 2026, which could contribute to a potential record-breaking year in 2027.
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The last strong El Niño episode played a major role in pushing global temperatures to record highs in 2023 and 2024. Despite the alarming projections, the WMO stressed that temporary exceedances of 1.5°C do not necessarily mean the long-term Paris Agreement targets are permanently out of reach, as those are based on sustained multi-decade averages.
However, it cautioned that continued emissions could make long-term compliance increasingly difficult. The outlook also highlights significant regional climate impacts, including stronger-than-average Arctic warming, wetter conditions in parts of northern Europe and the Sahel, and drier-than-normal conditions in regions such as the Amazon, signaling broad and uneven consequences of ongoing global warming.
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