Trump’s Iran Conflict Could Trigger Global Nuclear Arms Race, Experts Warn

The ongoing US-led military campaign against Iran is raising global concerns about a potential surge in nuclear proliferation, experts warn. While President Donald Trump has maintained that the primary goal of US involvement—alongside Israeli military action—is to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, the conflict may have the opposite effect, driving Iran and other nations to accelerate their atomic ambitions.

Since the strikes began four weeks ago, Tehran’s nuclear program has been targeted, following warnings from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Iran had stockpiled significant quantities of highly enriched uranium capable of fueling nuclear warheads. The Islamic Republic also maintains a large ballistic missile inventory and supports regional proxy groups, heightening US fears of a growing military threat. Trump has repeatedly stated that “peace in the Middle East” cannot exist if Iran possesses nuclear weapons.

Experts, however, argue that military action could strengthen Iran’s determination to pursue nuclear capabilities. Ramesh Thakur, professor emeritus at the Crawford School of the Australian National University, told Time magazine that for Iran, nuclear weapons have become “the only thing that will guarantee regime survival.” Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the Washington-based think tank Defence Priorities, added that the destruction of Iran’s missile infrastructure might make a nuclear bomb the fastest path for Tehran to restore deterrence in the region.

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The broader implications extend beyond Iran. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has cited the conflict as justification for retaining his nuclear arsenal, while past experiences of Libya, Iraq, and Ukraine illustrate the risks of giving up nuclear weapons under perceived US protection. The situation has alarmed US allies in the Middle East, Europe, and East Asia, prompting discussions about independent nuclear deterrents in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, South Korea, and potentially Taiwan.

In South Korea, for instance, public support for an indigenous nuclear program recently surged to a record 76.2%, reflecting growing skepticism about relying on US security guarantees. Analysts warn that these dynamics could trigger a new era of nuclear armament, making global security more precarious. Daniel Pinkston, adjunct professor at Troy University in Seoul, noted that the US’s traditional promise of extended deterrence is losing credibility, leaving states more inclined to develop their own arsenals.

The escalating conflict in the Gulf, therefore, carries the risk of releasing a “nuclear genie” that may be difficult to contain. With multiple nations reconsidering their atomic strategies in response to perceived US unpredictability and regional threats, experts caution that the world could see a significant expansion in nuclear capabilities, heightening the risk of miscalculations and catastrophic conflict.

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