Trump Says ‘Fair Trade Deal’ with India Imminent After Months of High-Stakes Negotiations

President Donald Trump announced on Monday that the United States is on the verge of securing a landmark trade agreement with India, one designed to reshape bilateral economic and security partnerships while addressing long-standing grievances over tariffs. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office during the swearing-in ceremony of Sergio Gor as the new US Ambassador to India, Trump emphasized the deal's fairness, stating, "We're getting a fair deal, just a fair trade deal." This comes amid five rounds of negotiations since March 2025, with the first phase targeted for completion by year's end, aiming to balloon bilateral trade from $191 billion to $500 billion by 2030.

The proposed pact builds on earlier talks initiated in February 2025, focusing on boosting US energy exports—particularly liquefied natural gas—to India, which could see volumes double in the coming years. It also seeks to channel Indian investments into critical US sectors like semiconductors, renewable energy, and defense manufacturing, fostering job creation and supply chain resilience. Trump highlighted the shift from previous "unfair" arrangements, noting, "We're making a deal with India, much different than we had in the past." Optimism stems from India's recent reduction in Russian oil imports, a key US demand that prompted the imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian goods earlier this year, including a 25% penalty linked to energy sourcing.

Sergio Gor's appointment adds momentum to the diplomacy, with the veteran diplomat—known for his expertise in South Asian affairs—tasked with bridging remaining gaps. Attendees at the ceremony, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Attorney Jeanine Pirro, applauded as Trump reiterated, "We're getting close." Recent virtual talks on October 23 and an in-person delegation led by India's Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal in September have yielded "positive and forward-looking" progress, according to officials. Both sides are navigating sensitive issues, such as agricultural market access and intellectual property protections, but Goyal affirmed last week that discussions are advancing despite "serious challenges."

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Trump's remarks also carried a lighter tone, quipping that while "right now they don’t love me," Indians "will love us again" once tariffs ease—potentially dropping to 10-15% under the deal. This follows a 37.5% dip in Indian exports to the US from May to September 2025, hammering sectors like textiles and apparel, which rely heavily on American markets. The agreement could provide partial relief, exempting certain US-origin inputs and stabilizing $11 billion in trade flows. Indian negotiators, including Chief Negotiator Rajesh Agrawal, have pushed back on US demands for dairy and auto imports that threaten local farmers, insisting on a balanced outcome that safeguards domestic interests.

As the deadline looms before November 30, experts view the deal as a potential reset for US-India ties strained by Trump's protectionist policies. Oxford Economics' Alexandra Hermann noted that a swift resolution could unlock weeks of pent-up momentum, with both nations optimistic about finalizing terms soon. Trump's envoy Gor is set to arrive in New Delhi shortly, where he will engage directly with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Goyal to seal the pact. If successful, this "fair deal" could not only mend economic rifts but also deepen strategic collaboration on counterterrorism and Indo-Pacific security, signaling a new chapter in the world's largest democracies' partnership.

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