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The latest US intelligence assessment has warned that the current confrontation between Washington and Tehran could continue for an extended period, with both sides appearing unlikely to move away from their positions. The report, prepared mainly by the CIA and submitted to the Trump administration, describes the situation as an “indefinite state” between conflict and diplomacy, according to The Washington Post.
The assessment comes as tensions have intensified following the collapse of a fragile ceasefire earlier this month. US intelligence officials reportedly believe that recent military strikes have not significantly changed Iran’s approach, raising concerns that the conflict could remain unresolved and contribute to prolonged instability across the Middle East.
The report highlights a difficult situation for US President Donald Trump, whose administration has expanded military operations against Iran while facing pressure to achieve a decisive outcome. Intelligence officials believe the conflict has reached a stalemate, with further escalation, including the possibility of deploying ground forces, carrying major political risks without guaranteeing military success.
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Despite the continued hostilities, both the United States and Iran have indicated that diplomatic channels remain open. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said messages had been exchanged through mediators, suggesting that diplomatic efforts were continuing. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also acknowledged that Tehran had sent signals about negotiations but criticised Iran’s continued military actions.
Rubio said some members of Iran’s leadership may be open to talks, although hardline elements remain a challenge. The intelligence assessment also noted previous findings that Iran’s leadership has shown significant resilience during periods of pressure, including economic and military challenges.
A previous CIA assessment in May reportedly concluded that Iran could withstand a US naval blockade for several months before facing severe economic difficulties. Former US deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East Jonathan Panikoff said the assumption that sustained military pressure would force Tehran to make concessions was likely flawed, arguing that Iran’s leadership has historically prioritised regime survival even at substantial costs.
The latest assessment adds to concerns that the US-Iran confrontation could become a long-term crisis rather than a short-term conflict. With both nations continuing to balance military actions and diplomatic signals, the situation remains uncertain and could have wider implications for regional security and global stability.
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