Trump Nominated For 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, But Expert Consensus Predicts Low Odds

US President Donald Trump is not expected to receive the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize while the United States remains engaged in an active conflict with Iran, yet experts say his influence will nevertheless shape the deliberations of the Norwegian Nobel Committee that selects each year’s laureate. The committee’s decision will be watched closely because of the unusual circumstances that surrounded last year’s award and the continued public attention Trump has directed toward the prize. The five-member committee is scheduled to announce this year’s winner on October 9. Last year’s decision to award the prize to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado proved distinctive in the award’s 125-year history.

The choice came amid repeated public lobbying by Trump for the honour himself. In the weeks that followed the announcement, Machado presented her gold Nobel medal to Trump in a symbolic gesture intended to secure greater support for her efforts to advance democratic change in Venezuela. The Norwegian Nobel Institute later issued a clear statement clarifying that the prize itself cannot be revoked, shared or transferred, underscoring that the formal recognition remains with the original recipient regardless of any subsequent physical presentation of the medal. According to Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, the unusual sequence of events surrounding last year’s prize is likely to weigh on the committee’s thinking this time.

“I think last year’s events around the Nobel Peace Prize, Maria Corina Machado giving it to Trump afterwards, will affect some of the considerations that they make,” he told Reuters. One particular concern, he noted, is whether awarding the prize to a given individual or organisation could place that recipient under subsequent political pressure from Trump. The committee, in Gjerloew’s assessment, will carefully evaluate whether the award risks producing more harm than good in the current climate. This caution reflects a broader awareness within the awarding body of how the prize can become entangled in contemporary political dynamics. As a result of these considerations, observers believe the panel may lean toward candidates viewed as better positioned to withstand external pressure.

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Among the names frequently cited by experts are Pope Leo, the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, and Francesca Albanese, the United Nations special rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories. Such selections would allow the committee to recognise contributions in the fields of peace advocacy, international justice or humanitarian work while reducing the likelihood that the award becomes the focus of political controversy. Pope Leo, the first US-born pontiff, has continued to speak publicly against war and has emphasised dialogue, respect for migrants and humanitarian principles, positions that some analysts regard as consistent with the prize’s traditional criteria. The courts and the special rapporteur, meanwhile, represent institutional and individual efforts focused on legal accountability and the protection of rights in conflict settings.

Although Trump has been nominated by the leaders of several countries, including Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan, Gjerloew assessed his overall chances of receiving the prize as “quite low.” The combination of the ongoing conflict with Iran and the precedent set by last year’s events has led many analysts to conclude that the committee will prioritise a selection capable of standing independently of political pressure from Washington. The formal announcement on October 9 will reveal whether that caution has guided the final decision and which individual or institution the committee ultimately chooses to honour. Until then, the discussion around the prize continues to illustrate the complex relationship between high-profile political figures and one of the world’s most closely watched international awards.

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