Trump Eyes “Really Great” US-China Trade Deal at APEC Talks

President Donald Trump is ramping up the pressure on China, boldly predicting a "really fair and really great trade deal" with President Xi Jinping while flagging Taiwan as a powder keg issue set to dominate their talks. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday and at the White House on Monday, Trump laid out the US's burning priorities—rare earth minerals, the fentanyl crisis, soybean exports, and Beijing's territorial claims on the self-governing island—underscoring the razor-thin line between breakthrough and breakdown in US-China relations.

The upcoming face-off is slated for the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, on October 31–November 1, 2025, marking the first in-person encounter between the two leaders since Trump's return to the White House. Despite recent escalations that nearly derailed the rendezvous—Trump even hinted at cancellation on Truth Social last week—the meeting appears back on track, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirming late last week that preliminary talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia set a constructive tone. "I think when we finish our meetings in South Korea, China and I will have a really fair and really great trade deal together," Trump declared optimistically, even as he reiterated threats of crippling 100% tariffs on Chinese goods if no pact materializes by his self-imposed November 1 deadline.

At the heart of the discord are China's tightened export controls on rare earth elements, vital for everything from fighter jets to smartphones, which Trump slammed as a "rare earth game" Beijing shouldn't play. The US leader, fresh from a virtual huddle with He Lifeng, warned he'd slap additional levies and even halt shipments of commercial airplane parts to China if concessions aren't forthcoming. This comes hot on the heels of Beijing's vow to broaden oversight of these critical minerals, a direct riposte to Washington's expanded tech sanctions and proposed port fees on Chinese vessels—moves that have unraveled a fragile trade truce expiring November 10 unless renewed.

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Soybean farmers, a cornerstone of Trump's rural base, are feeling the squeeze hardest. China, once gobbling up $12.6 billion in US soybeans last year, has slashed purchases to zero this year, pivoting to South American suppliers amid the tit-for-tat trade war. Storage silos are bursting, prices are tanking, and federal aid is stalled by the ongoing government shutdown. "I urged China to quadruple its buying," Trump fumed last week, even floating a ban on Chinese cooking oil imports to retaliate. Frustrated growers are pinning hopes on the APEC talks for relief, with Trump vowing to leverage the dispute for "quick, demonstrable victories."

The opioid epidemic adds another layer of urgency, with Trump demanding China crack down on fentanyl precursors fueling America's deadly crisis. Earlier this year, he hiked tariffs to 20% on all Chinese imports over the issue, stacking them atop his infamous "Liberation Day" duties. While Beijing tightened controls on two key chemicals in June, it insists the US must tackle its domestic drug woes—yet experts see this as ripe for compromise. "These are highly tangible issues that resonate with powerful US constituencies," noted Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy in Beijing, suggesting Trump is eyeing fast wins over thorny structural reforms.

Taiwan looms largest, however, as Trump anticipates it will headline discussions during his sit-down with Xi. "I assume that’s going to be one of the things," he told reporters Monday alongside Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, deftly avoiding speculation on potential trade-offs like concessions for greater Chinese sway over the island. Beijing views Taiwan as its core interest, with military drills intensifying around the strait, but Trump downplayed invasion risks: "Now that doesn’t mean it’s not the apple of his eye... but I don’t see anything happening." He touted defense pacts with allies like Australia as a bulwark, emphasizing that US commitments remain "nonnegotiable" even as tariffs dangle as a bargaining chip.

China's response has been measured but firm. Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun stressed Monday that "a trade war does not serve the interests of either party," urging talks grounded in "equality, respect, and mutual benefit." Behind the scenes, Chinese delegates at last week's IMF meetings in Washington assured global counterparts that rare earth curbs won't disrupt normal trade, framing them as a measured reply to US "provocations" like sanctioning blacklisted firms' subsidiaries. Analysts, including former Defense Intelligence Agency China specialist Frank Miller, warn Xi may push harder on nationalist fronts like Taiwan, advising Trump against forcing concessions on trade or tariffs.

As Trump jets off to Kuala Lumpur and Tokyo before landing in Gyeongju, the world watches a delicate dance: Will optimism yield a landmark deal stabilizing global supply chains, or will brinkmanship ignite a fresh trade inferno? With US imports from China already down 19% this year to $194 billion through July, the stakes couldn't be higher. Beijing's soybean snub and fentanyl foot-dragging have eroded months of tentative calm, but Trump's blend of bluster and backchannel diplomacy—praised as "very respectful" from the Chinese side—hints at room for maneuver. For American farmers, tech firms, and fentanyl victims, the APEC summit isn't just diplomacy; it's a lifeline.

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