Middle East in Crisis: War, Displacement and Broken Supply Chains Twelve Days in

The conflict between United States and Iran, involving Israel, has intensified into a major regional war in the Middle East, raising global security concerns and triggering economic volatility. The war began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran, rapidly escalating tensions across the region. Twelve days into the conflict, military operations continue across multiple countries, with airstrikes, missile attacks, and retaliatory operations being reported. The confrontation has already drawn in several regional actors and sparked fears of a prolonged conflict with significant humanitarian and economic consequences.

Amid the ongoing escalation, US President Donald Trump has publicly claimed that the United States has already secured victory in the conflict. Speaking to supporters at an event in Kentucky, Trump stated that the outcome of the war had effectively been decided in the early hours of the military campaign. According to his remarks, the United States anticipated retaliation but experienced fewer strikes than expected. Trump told supporters that the war had been won “in the first hour", though hostilities across the region have continued to intensify with new attacks and counterattacks being reported.

Iran, however, has presented a sharply different account of the war’s impact, accusing US and Israeli forces of targeting thousands of civilian sites across the country. Iranian officials claim that nearly 10,000 civilian locations have been bombed since the beginning of the conflict, resulting in more than 1,300 civilian deaths. The situation in Tehran has reportedly deteriorated rapidly, with large sections of the capital emptied as residents flee ongoing airstrikes. International agencies have also warned of worsening humanitarian conditions, including potential toxic rainfall and major disruptions to medical and food supply chains.

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Military operations have expanded beyond Iran and Israel, drawing other countries into the conflict zone. Iranian forces and the Hezbollah militant group reportedly launched a coordinated attack lasting several hours and targeting more than 50 locations across Israel. In response, Israel carried out extensive strikes in Lebanon after facing multiple rocket attacks from Hezbollah positions. Iran has also reportedly targeted military bases in regional states, including Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, further widening the scope of the conflict.

The war has also had dramatic political consequences within Iran. Among those reported killed in the strikes was Iran’s long-time Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with several senior military commanders. Following his death, his son Mojtaba Khamenei was reportedly appointed as the country’s new supreme leader on March 8. Reports indicate that Mojtaba sustained minor injuries, including a fractured foot, during the early stages of the military campaign but has since assumed leadership amid the ongoing crisis.

Beyond the battlefield, the conflict has already begun to shake global markets and energy supplies. The International Energy Agency has announced plans to release a record 400 million barrels of crude oil to stabilise markets disrupted by the war. Meanwhile, the US military says it destroyed several Iranian naval vessels near the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a maritime chokepoint through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil passes. As fighting continues and diplomatic solutions remain uncertain, global leaders and international organisations are closely monitoring developments in what could become one of the most significant conflicts in recent years.

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