Trump Calls China’s Soybean Ban an ‘Economically Hostile Act’

President Donald Trump has threatened to sever trade ties in cooking oil and other sectors, branding China's refusal to purchase American soybeans as an "Economically Hostile Act." The provocative statement, posted on Truth Social on October 14, 2025, comes amid a broader rekindling of hostilities between the world's two largest economies, with implications rippling through agricultural markets, biofuel production, and global commodity prices.

Trump's post highlighted the distress inflicted on US soybean farmers, particularly in Republican strongholds like the Midwest, where exports to China once totaled around $12.6 billion annually. "I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution," he wrote. He further asserted that the US could "easily produce cooking oil" domestically, downplaying reliance on Chinese supplies. This follows China's sharp pivot to Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in response to US tariffs, a move that has left American growers grappling with surplus stocks and plummeting prices.

The targeted retaliation focuses on used cooking oil (UCO), a key Chinese export to the US that surged to a record 1.27 million tons valued at $1.2 billion in 2024, accounting for 43% of Beijing's total UCO shipments. Much of this oil fuels the US biofuel industry, incentivized under the Inflation Reduction Act, but imports have already waned this year after China eliminated export tax relief in December 2024. While the US primarily sources edible cooking oils from Canada, Indonesia, and the EU, a full embargo could disrupt renewable fuel supplies, inflate costs for processors, and exacerbate inflationary pressures at a time when grocery prices remain elevated. Market reactions were swift: The S&P 500 dipped into negative territory following the post, with shares of agribusiness giants like Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge initially tumbling before partial recovery.

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This latest salvo underscores the volatile trajectory of US-China relations since Trump's return to the White House, marked by dueling export controls—China's on rare earth minerals essential for tech manufacturing, met by Trump's earlier vow of 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports. Despite intermittent optimism from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer about ongoing negotiations, Trump's rhetoric has sown uncertainty, potentially derailing talks ahead of his anticipated meeting with President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in South Korea.

Farmers' groups, including the American Soybean Association, have voiced frustration, preferring a stable trade deal over government aid packages stalled by the federal shutdown. As Beijing warns of countermeasures, analysts caution that further de-escalation may hinge on concessions in high-stakes areas like fentanyl curbs and intellectual property, lest the spat spirals into a full-blown economic standoff.

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