Sudan’s Nile Nightmare: Ethiopia’s GERD Dam Sparks Devastating Flood Crisis

Sudan's irrigation ministry escalated warnings with a "red alert" for potential flooding in five key provinces—Khartoum, River Nile, White Nile, Sennar, and Blue Nile—along the Nile River, driven by surging water levels in the Blue and White Nile tributaries. The alert, first issued on Sunday and extended into Monday, urges residents to exercise extreme caution as high water flows, sustained for four consecutive days due to dam discharges, pose risks to agricultural lands, homes, and infrastructure. Officials anticipate a gradual decrease in levels throughout the week, but the immediate threat has already disrupted rural communities, exacerbating Sudan's ongoing humanitarian challenges amid its civil war and economic woes.

In the River Nile province, farmers faced urgent dilemmas as lowland areas flooded, forcing hasty sales of onion crops to salvage yields before total inundation, according to local reports from Shendi Now on Facebook. This incident highlights the vulnerability of Sudan's agriculture-dependent economy, where the Nile's fertile banks support over 70% of the nation's food production. The flooding comes at a critical juncture, coinciding with the tail end of the harvest season, when excess water could lead to widespread crop losses estimated in the millions of dollars. Displaced families and livestock herders are particularly at risk, with potential evacuations looming if levels continue to rise unchecked.

Experts attribute the crisis to operational issues with Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa's largest hydroelectric project, inaugurated earlier in September 2025 at a cost of nearly $5 billion. Located on the Blue Nile near the Sudan border, the GERD aims to generate over 5,000 megawatts, potentially doubling Ethiopia's electricity output and powering economic growth. However, Cairo University geology and water resources professor Abbas Sharaky described the flooding as a "man-made error," stemming from Ethiopia's failure to gradually release stored rainwater accumulated during the June-August monsoon. Four turbines, intended to manage reservoir levels, malfunctioned, preventing controlled discharges and resulting in an overwhelming downstream surge into Sudan.

Also Read: Jhelum River Floods Srinagar, Evacuations Ordered

The GERD saga underscores deep-seated tensions over Nile water rights, with downstream nations Egypt and Sudan accusing Ethiopia of unilateral actions that violate international norms. Egypt has repeatedly criticized Ethiopia's lack of political will for a binding agreement, arguing it undermines the 1929 and 1959 treaties allocating 55.5 billion cubic meters annually to Egypt and 18.5 billion to Sudan. Ethiopian Water Minister Habtamu Itefa Geleta countered during the inauguration that the dam mitigated flooding by storing monsoon waters, but Sharaky's analysis reveals the opposite effect this year due to turbine failures. "Ethiopia was stubborn," Sharaky noted, pointing to persistent claims of operational turbines contradicted by rising reservoir data.

As Sudan grapples with this flood risk, international calls for tripartite negotiations intensify to ensure equitable dam management. While the GERD promises long-term benefits like regulated flows during dry seasons, its current mishandling amplifies regional instability. Sudanese authorities are mobilizing emergency response teams, including sandbagging riverbanks and distributing aid kits, but experts warn that without swift diplomatic intervention, similar incidents could recur, threatening food security and heightening geopolitical frictions along Africa's vital Nile lifeline.

Also Read: Dehradun Water Crisis Eases: Partial Restoration After Devastating Cloudbursts