Simulation Finds Jeju Air Crash Could Have Been Survivable Without Concrete Barrier

A recently disclosed government-commissioned simulation analysis has determined that the catastrophic Jeju Air Boeing 737-800 crash at Muan International Airport on December 29, 2024, which resulted in 179 fatalities out of 181 people on board, could have been entirely survivable had the non-compliant concrete mound supporting the localizer antenna not been present at the runway's end.

The flight from Bangkok encountered bird strikes affecting both engines, leading to a mayday declaration, a go-around attempt, and ultimately a belly landing without deployed gear; the aircraft then overran the runway and slammed into the rigid concrete structure, causing a devastating explosion and fireball that spared only two flight attendants seated in the tail section.

Details emerged through opposition lawmaker Kim Eun-hye, a key member of the bipartisan parliamentary special committee investigating the incident, who referenced the report from the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea; the simulation indicated that the initial belly landing impact lacked the force to inflict severe injuries, with the plane projected to slide approximately 770 meters before coming to a controlled stop absent the barrier.

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Furthermore, the analysis concluded that adherence to international aviation standards—requiring frangible, breakable mounts for such navigation aids—would have permitted the jet to penetrate only the perimeter fence, limiting outcomes to minor injuries for all passengers and crew, highlighting a critical infrastructure flaw that violated safety regulations.

In a notable reversal, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport has now acknowledged the localizer structure's non-compliance with standards, particularly noting missed opportunities for correction during a 2020 upgrade; this admission, coupled with ongoing delays in the full official report and a parliamentary probe, has fueled intense demands from victims' families for transparency, apologies, and accountability over what they describe as a man-made disaster rooted in longstanding negligence.

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