Scientists’ Breakthrough Discovery on Mount Etna Could Predict Deadly Eruptions
Italian scientists discover a seismic signal on Mount Etna that could warn of eruptions days in advance.
A groundbreaking discovery by Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) has unveiled a new seismic indicator that could transform eruption forecasting for Mount Etna, Europe’s most active volcano. By analyzing nearly two decades of earthquake data from 2005 to 2024, scientists identified a pattern in seismic activity that signals magma movement beneath the volcano. Published in Communications Earth & Environment, this finding offers a promising tool for providing early warnings, potentially safeguarding communities around Etna and beyond from the devastating impacts of volcanic eruptions.
The key to this discovery lies in a statistical measure known as the b-value, which tracks the ratio of small to large earthquakes beneath Mount Etna. Researchers found that as magma ascends, it fractures the surrounding crust, triggering a surge in smaller quakes and a corresponding rise in the b-value. This spike occurs as magma shifts between deep (11 km), intermediate (3-7 km), and shallow (above sea level) storage zones. However, the b-value drops sharply as magma nears the surface, often days before an eruption, providing a critical clue to impending volcanic activity.
The INGV team’s analysis of seismic records revealed consistent b-value changes tied to magma movement, offering a reliable indicator for monitoring Etna’s unrest. While the method was developed specifically for Etna, scientists believe it could be applied to other volcanoes with robust seismic data, enhancing global eruption prediction efforts. When combined with satellite imagery and gas emission monitoring, this seismic approach could create a more comprehensive system for detecting volcanic activity, significantly improving preparedness for communities near active volcanoes.
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Though not a definitive predictor, this seismic indicator marks a significant leap toward real-time eruption alerts. For the millions living near Mount Etna and other volatile volcanoes, such advancements could prove life-saving by providing crucial time to evacuate or prepare. Scientists caution that the system offers probabilistic rather than certain forecasts, but its integration with existing monitoring technologies heralds a new era in volcanic risk management, with potential to protect lives and infrastructure worldwide.
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