Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact Raises Concerns Over Nuclear Norms And Extended Deterrence

A recent report has raised concerns that the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan could undermine global nuclear norms, including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Analysts warn that the pact, which formalises the long-standing security partnership between the two countries, may signal a shift in Gulf security away from reliance on the United States and could set a precedent for extended nuclear deterrence.

Signed on September 17, 2025, the agreement commits Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to treat any attack on one as an attack on both, according to a report by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). While the official text of the agreement has not been made public, a Saudi official described it as “a comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means,” raising questions about the potential involvement of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.

Although Pakistan has not officially confirmed that it has extended nuclear protection to Saudi Arabia, statements by officials have fueled speculation. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif reportedly said, “What we have, and the capabilities we possess, will be made available under this agreement,” a remark widely interpreted as referring to the country’s nuclear forces. Later, he clarified that nuclear weapons were “not on the radar,” but ambiguity remains.

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Chatham House analysts highlighted in the report that the pact “sets a precedent for extended deterrence” outside the framework of the NPT, potentially challenging the norms that govern nuclear weapons and their proliferation. Critics argue that such arrangements undermine the humanitarian logic behind nuclear disarmament treaties and obscure public accountability regarding nuclear policies.

Alicia Sanders-Zakre, ICAN’s Head of Policy, emphasised the risks posed by the lack of transparency in nuclear policy. “The use of nuclear weapons would indiscriminately maim and kill people around the world, but policies about nuclear use are kept secret from citizens of nuclear-armed and nuclear-allied states, from Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, to Germany and the United States. The public deserves to have the information to scrutinise nuclear policies and discuss their implications for a humanitarian catastrophe,” she said.

The report underscores growing concerns that regional defence agreements involving nuclear-armed states may erode global non-proliferation norms and complicate international efforts to reduce the threat of nuclear conflict. As Saudi Arabia and Pakistan move forward with their defence partnership, analysts warn that the long-term implications for regional and global security remain uncertain.

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