PM Modi in China After 7 Years; Key Talks with Xi Scheduled for Sunday

Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Tianjin, China, on Saturday for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, marking his first visit to the country in over seven years. The trip, occurring from August 31 to September 1, gains significance amid strained India-U.S. relations due to President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on $81 billion of Indian exports, including a 25% penalty for India’s Russian oil purchases. Modi’s scheduled bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sunday is expected to focus on strengthening economic ties and normalizing relations post the 2020 Galwan Valley clash.

Modi, fresh from a two-day visit to Japan, emphasized the need for India-China collaboration in an interview with The Yomiuri Shimbun, stating, “Stable, predictable, and amicable relations between India and China can positively impact regional and global peace.” He highlighted their role as major economies in stabilizing the volatile global economy. The talks follow recent diplomatic efforts, including Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s August 19 visit to New Delhi, where agreements were made to resume direct flights, reopen three Himalayan border trade crossings, and ensure peace along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

The Modi-Xi meeting, the first since their October 2024 BRICS summit encounter in Kazan, Russia, will review progress on disengagement in eastern Ladakh, completed on October 21, 2024, at Demchok and Depsang. Discussions may also cover easing trade barriers, with India considering relaxed scrutiny on Chinese investments and Beijing lifting export curbs on rare earths, fertilizers, and tunnel-boring machines. Indian businessmen like Ajeet Khan and Jayanta Nandy see the visit as a chance to boost digital technology and green energy cooperation, mitigating U.S. tariff impacts.

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Modi will also meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, with Moscow hinting at potential trilateral talks involving India, China, and Russia. The SCO summit, hosting over 20 leaders from Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East, underscores Global South solidarity, especially as China faces 145% U.S. tariffs. However, Chinese analysts remain cautious, with some labeling India a “fence-sitter” that might pivot to the U.S. if Trump negotiates a Russia-Ukraine deal. Despite distrust, the summit offers a platform for incremental confidence-building, though the unresolved border dispute and 60,000 troops on each side of the LAC remain hurdles.

India’s $4 trillion economy, with exports to the U.S. comprising 80% of its $81 billion total in 2024, faces a projected $64 billion trade hit from tariffs, though the Reserve Bank of India maintains a 6.5% GDP growth forecast. Modi’s visit signals a strategic recalibration, balancing ties with China and Russia against U.S. pressures, while advancing India’s role in a multipolar Asia.

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