October Jobs, CPI Data Unavailable as US Agencies Suspend Work, Says White House

The White House announced on November 12, 2025, that key economic indicators for October, including the monthly jobs report and Consumer Price Index (CPI), are unlikely to be released due to disruptions from the ongoing federal government shutdown, now in its seventh week and the longest in U.S. history. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated during a briefing that the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) and other agencies have suspended data collection and publication, leaving a critical gap in information essential for gauging the economy's health. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett warned that some surveys, particularly household-based ones for unemployment rates, may never be recoverable, as retroactive outreach to individuals proves challenging compared to electronic business submissions. This marks a historic potential omission, with the BLS yet to update its schedule, though it prioritised September's CPI release in late October to meet Social Security cost-of-living adjustment deadlines.

The shutdown, triggered by partisan disputes over funding—specifically Democrats' push for Affordable Care Act subsidies and Medicaid expansions amid Republican opposition—began on October 1 after Congress failed to extend fiscal year appropriations. It has furloughed over 800,000 federal workers and halted operations at statistical agencies like the BLS, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Census Bureau, suspending nearly all economic data flows. While some pre-shutdown data for September jobs is expected to emerge shortly after reopening, October's metrics face higher risks: CPI relies heavily on in-person price checks at two-thirds of outlets, and jobs data from smaller firms often lacks electronic backups, potentially forcing imputation or outright skips that could skew reliability. Economists note that prior shutdowns in 1995-1996 and 2013 caused delays but not permanent gaps, though today's prolonged impasse amplifies concerns over data integrity.

The absence of these reports arrives at a pivotal moment for monetary policy, as the Federal Reserve prepares for its December 9-10 meeting to deliberate interest rate adjustments amid signs of cooling labour markets and sticky inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently indicated reliance on alternative public- and private-sector indicators, but officials are effectively "flying blind" without official benchmarks like nonfarm payrolls—forecast to show a 60,000-job loss—and CPI, which tracks consumer costs for everything from groceries to housing. Wall Street analysts, including those at Goldman Sachs, anticipate a staggered backlog release starting early next week if Congress passes the compromise funding bill by late Wednesday but warn of compressed November collections around Thanksgiving further complicating accuracy. Markets have already shown volatility, with investors turning to proxies like private payroll trackers amid speculation that withheld data might reveal worse-than-expected weakness.

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As bipartisan negotiations advance toward resolution, the episode underscores vulnerabilities in the U.S. statistical framework during fiscal gridlock, potentially eroding trust in economic narratives and prompting calls for reforms to safeguard data continuity. Social media buzz reflects public frustration, with users decrying the "economic blackout" and theorising cover-ups, though experts emphasise logistical hurdles over malice. Once funding resumes, BLS plans to notify on revised timelines, possibly bundling months or imputing gaps, but the lasting ripple could distort year-end assessments and influence everything from holiday retail forecasts to global trade outlooks into 2026.

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