No Chinese Presence! Myanmar Tells India Amid Spy-Base Rumours on Coco Islands

Myanmar's military junta has conveyed to India that no Chinese personnel are stationed on the strategically vital Coco Islands in the Bay of Bengal, seeking to ease New Delhi's apprehensions over potential Beijing-backed surveillance activities. However, Naypyitaw has yet to approve India's repeated requests for its navy to conduct an on-site visit to the island chain, located less than 100 nautical miles from India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands. This development emerges from high-level bilateral talks last month, highlighting persistent tensions in the Indian Ocean Region, where China's expanding naval footprint intersects with India's maritime security interests.

The Coco Islands, part of Myanmar's Yangon Region, have long been a flashpoint due to their proximity to key Indian assets, including missile test sites and submarine bases, amplifying fears of intelligence gathering that could undermine India's strategic deterrence.

The assurance was delivered during the second annual India-Myanmar Defence Dialogue held in Naypyitaw from September 25-27, where Indian Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh met Major General Kyaw Ko Htike, Chief of Myanmar Armed Forces Training. According to sources familiar with the discussions, the junta explicitly stated that "not a single Chinese national" is present on the islands, countering Indian intelligence assessments suggesting otherwise. Despite this, the lack of clearance for an Indian Navy inspection—pursued through diplomatic and military channels—has fuelled scepticism.

Satellite imagery analysed by Indian agencies indicates significant infrastructure upgrades on Great Coco Island, including the extension of its airstrip to 2,300 metres to handle transport aircraft, alongside new barracks capable of housing over 1,500 personnel and ongoing causeway construction linking it to nearby Jerry Island. These enhancements, initiated around 2019 under a Myanmar-China development pact, raise questions about the islands' dual-use potential for military logistics.

Indian security planners remain wary that China could leverage the Coco Islands as a listening post to monitor sensitive activities, such as missile tests from the Integrated Test Range at Balasore in Odisha and movements of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) from the under-construction INS Varsha base near Rambilli, Andhra Pradesh—both aligned latitudinally with the islands. Historical concerns trace back to the 1990s, when reports first surfaced of Chinese involvement in radar and signals intelligence facilities there, prompting India to bolster its own Andaman and Nicobar Command.

While Myanmar maintains these projects are for civilian and border security purposes, the opacity surrounding them exacerbates regional rivalries. The junta's limited control beyond the Chindwin River in northern and western Myanmar further complicates matters, with China-linked insurgent groups and drug militias dominating border areas adjacent to India's Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur, potentially facilitating unchecked Chinese influence.

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This episode underscores the delicate balance in India-Myanmar ties, strained by the 2021 coup yet sustained through defence cooperation forums like the dialogue series. As India advances its Act East Policy and SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) vision, verifying Myanmar's claims is crucial to safeguarding maritime domain awareness. Analysts suggest joint patrols or third-party audits could bridge trust gaps, but until access is granted, speculation will persist. With China's Belt and Road Initiative extending into the Bay of Bengal, the Coco Islands saga exemplifies broader geopolitical chess in Southeast Asia, where infrastructure often masks strategic ambitions.

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