Myanmar Elections 2025 Expose Power Struggle, Conflict, and Fragmented Political Landscape

Myanmar’s military junta is pressing ahead with nationwide elections scheduled for December 28, 2025, under the controversial 2008 Constitution, projecting a new civilian-led government by April 2026. Yet the vote is widely dismissed as a sham designed to legitimize four years of military rule rather than end it. The United Nations, Western governments, and even ASEAN have condemned the process as fraudulent and non-inclusive, with the regional bloc refusing to send observers. With the country fractured by a brutal civil war that has displaced over 3.3 million people and killed tens of thousands since the February 2021 coup, these elections offer no realistic path to peace or democratic restoration.

The conflict has grown more complex and deadlier. Between January and May 2025 alone, the Myanmar Air Force launched 1,134 airstrikes—nearly double the number for the same period in 2024—targeting both rebel-held territories and civilian areas. Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) records show the military has lost significant ground along border regions to a loose coalition of Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and People’s Defence Forces aligned with the shadow National Unity Government (NUG). Yet the junta still controls the central heartland, the capital Nay Pyi Taw, and most financial levers. The economy has shrunk by an estimated 18% since the coup, while an illegal parallel economy—fueled by scam centers, narcotics, and resource extraction—flourishes in lawless zones.

Politically, the junta has engineered the vote to ensure its dominance. Over 50 parties have been allowed to register, but the National League for Democracy (NLD) remains dissolved, Aung San Suu Kyi and thousands of political prisoners are still detained, and independent media and civil society are crushed. Large swathes of territory under EAO control—home to millions—will simply not participate. The military-drafted 2008 Constitution already reserves 25% of parliamentary seats for uniformed officers and grants the commander-in-chief veto power over key ministries, guaranteeing the Tatmadaw’s grip even if pro-junta parties “win.”

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The opposition landscape is itself fragmented. The NUG enjoys international recognition and diaspora funding but holds almost no territory inside Myanmar. Powerful EAOs such as the Arakan Army, Kachin Independence Army, and Karen National Union control their ethnic homelands but differ sharply on the future shape of the state—federal, confederal, or autonomous—and some have clashed with one another. This disunity, combined with the military’s refusal to negotiate seriously, has turned what began as a pro-democracy uprising into a multi-front war of attrition.

ASEAN’s five-point consensus lies in tatters, China continues to hedge its bets by engaging both the junta and select EAOs, and Western sanctions have failed to cripple the military’s access to arms and revenue. India, too, maintains pragmatic ties with the junta while quietly engaging ethnic groups along its border.

Far from an off-ramp, the December elections risk becoming another trigger for escalation. The junta hopes a veneer of electoral legitimacy will loosen sanctions and attract investment; its opponents see the vote as a provocation that justifies intensified armed resistance. With no shared vision for a post-junta Myanmar and no neutral arbiter trusted by all sides, the country remains trapped in a civil war whose only certain outcome is more suffering for its people.

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