Japan’s Ruling Coalition Faces Defeat as Exit Polls Predict Loss

Exit polls from Japan’s upper house election on Sunday indicate that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito are likely to lose their majority in the 248-seat chamber, deepening political uncertainty in Japan. The coalition, which held 141 seats, needed 50 of the 125 contested seats to maintain control but is projected to secure only 32-51 seats, according to NHK, with other networks estimating just over 40.

The election, a key test for Ishiba’s leadership, follows the coalition’s loss of a lower house majority in October 2024, driven by voter frustration over corruption scandals, soaring prices, and stagnant wages. Rising rice costs and U.S. tariff threats, including a 25% tariff set for August 1, have further eroded support. While the upper house cannot file no-confidence motions, a poor showing may pressure Ishiba to resign or seek new coalition partners.

Voter discontent has fueled support for opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) and the populist Sanseito, which pushes an anti-foreigner “Japanese First” platform. Xenophobic rhetoric has sparked protests, highlighting tensions over immigration and social policies. Voters like Yuko Tsuji, 43, backed the LDP for stability, while Daiichi Nasu, 57, supported the CDPJ for progressive reforms.

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