Is India the Unintended Victim of Trump’s Crackdown on Russian Energy?

In a bold move to cripple Russia's war funding, US President Donald Trump has imposed sweeping sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's largest oil companies, announced on October 22, 2025. Aimed at pressuring Moscow to end its ongoing conflict in Ukraine, these measures target the heart of Russia's economy, where oil and gas account for roughly 25% of federal revenues. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated, "Given Putin's refusal to end this senseless war, we're hitting the oil giants that fuel the Kremlin's war machine."

The sanctions follow a similar move by the UK against Rosneft and Lukoil, while the EU's 19th sanctions package banned Russian LNG imports. The US has also pressed Japan, a major buyer of Russian energy, to halt imports, signaling a coordinated Western push to isolate Moscow's energy markets. With Russia exporting nearly 4 million barrels of crude daily, the ripple effects are hitting its top buyers—China and India—hardest, threatening global oil supply chains.

India, now the largest buyer of discounted Russian seaborne crude, faces a potential crisis. Since the 2022 Ukraine invasion, India has imported around 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025, leveraging cheap Russian oil to stabilize domestic fuel prices and boost refining margins for state giants like Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, and Mangalore Refinery. These firms, sourcing through intermediaries to avoid direct dealings with Rosneft and Lukoil, are now scrambling to review trade documents to comply with the US sanctions' November 21 wind-down deadline.

Also Read: Trump Imposes Harsh Sanctions on Russia’s Top Oil Firms Over War

The impact could be severe. Russian crude makes up over 36% of India’s oil imports, and a sudden halt could slash supplies by half, forcing refiners to seek costlier alternatives from the Middle East or elsewhere. Brent crude prices have already spiked over 3% to $75 per barrel, raising fears of inflation and higher fuel costs for Indian consumers. Private refiner Reliance Industries, tied to a long-term Rosneft deal, is reportedly considering halting purchases to avoid secondary sanctions that could block US dollar transactions or blacklist banks.

Trump has also slapped a 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing New Delhi’s heavy reliance on Russian oil, though he claimed PM Narendra Modi assured him India would scale back purchases to support peace efforts. India, however, prioritizes energy security in a volatile market, with officials quietly exploring new suppliers and hedging strategies. On X, former US sanctions official Edward Fishman warned, “The impact hinges on enforcement—will the US target Indian refineries or Chinese banks dealing with Rosneft? A short-term pullback is likely, but a sustained squeeze depends on relentless follow-through.”

Russia may pivot to shadow fleets or non-sanctioned exporters, but rerouting supplies will raise costs and strain ties with allies like India. As global oil markets brace for turbulence, India must navigate its strategic US partnership—vital for defense and tech cooperation—while shielding its 1.4 billion citizens from energy price shocks. With diplomatic and economic stakes soaring, New Delhi’s next moves will shape its energy future and global standing in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.

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