Iran War Exposes Cracks in Mecca Pact, Raises Doubts Over Pakistan's Global Relevance

The ongoing Iran war has raised questions over the practical strength of the defence pact signed by Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Mecca, with the alliance yet to demonstrate a coordinated military response despite escalating attacks involving Iran and its regional proxies. Six months into the conflict, Iran continues to launch optically guided ballistic missiles at Gulf allies of the United States, while groups linked to Tehran, including the Houthis in Yemen and Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, have intensified pressure on regional security and energy infrastructure.

The conflict has placed Saudi Arabia’s energy security architecture under growing strain, with attacks targeting East-West pipelines, airbases and key cities. The Houthis have also opened another front against Saudi Arabia after remaining relatively quiet for several months, while reportedly capturing important islands near Bab el-Mandeb, the strategic maritime passage connecting the Red Sea with routes leading towards the Suez Canal. These developments have increased concerns over both the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, which are vital for the movement and evacuation of crude oil and gas from Gulf countries.

As Gulf states continue to face missile and drone threats, they appear increasingly compelled to manage their own security challenges. The United States is also dealing with pressure on its military munition stockpiles, while Iran remains unwilling to end its confrontation with Washington despite the severe economic impact of the American naval blockade. Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir visited Tehran on August 24 in an effort to revive stalled peace discussions, but no concrete outcome has emerged from the diplomatic initiative so far.

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The Mecca pact was signed on August 7 by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Its provisions state that a military attack on one member would be treated as an attack on the alliance as a whole and would invite a collective response against the aggressor. However, despite Saudi Arabia facing missile attacks and pressure from Iranian-backed groups, neither Turkey nor Pakistan has provided visible military assistance, raising doubts about how the agreement would operate during an actual conflict.

More than a month after its signing, the alliance appears to lack clearly established standard operating procedures, common military doctrines and an agreed framework for implementing its mutual-defence commitment. Although it has been described by some supporters as a potential “Sunni NATO”, the pact may currently be serving more as a political and psychological reassurance mechanism than as a fully operational military arrangement. The economic difficulties facing Pakistan and Turkey, along with Saudi Arabia’s growing engagement with the US debt-bond market, further complicate the prospects of sustained military coordination.

The alliance has also faced limits in its potential expansion. Although countries such as Bangladesh have shown interest, the pact’s partners have resisted widening its membership, while the United Arab Emirates has stayed outside the arrangement because of its links with the Abraham Accords and its close relationships with the United States, India and Israel. Pakistan’s own internal security challenges, including active insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as well as tensions along both its western and eastern borders, raise further questions about its ability to provide military backing to Saudi Arabia or Turkey. These factors suggest that Pakistan’s increased diplomatic visibility may be greater than its actual strategic capacity.

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